British Chambers of Commerce raises growth forecast for 2013

 
Up for sale: The Gherkin is expected to sell for up to £650m
AFP
Agency30 August 2013

More signs of economic optimism have emerged as a business group forecast stronger-than-expected growth for this year.

The British Chambers of Commerce raised its gross domestic product estimate to 1.3% for the year from its previous 0.9%.

But it warned that the economy could yet be derailed by global jitters and urged the Government and Bank of England to do everything possible to ensure the recovery moves from "good to great".

Meanwhile unemployment will fall and government borrowing dip, the BCC said.

Britain's growth prospects have been boosted by increasingly upbeat data in recent weeks, including an official upgrade to growth between April and June from 0.6% to 0.7%.

Services, manufacturing, construction and agriculture all expanded - the first time Britain has been firing on all cylinders for nearly three years.

The new quarterly forecast follows another upgrade three months ago when the BCC raised its growth prediction from 0.6%. It also lifted growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015 to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.

Household consumption should grow by 1.7% this year and 2.3% next year as weakening inflation eases the squeeze on incomes, according to the BCC.

Director general John Longworth said: "Unfortunately, however, the recovery is not yet secure. We have had false dawns in recent years and although this upturn appears to be on stronger ground, we must be aware that complacency could lead to setbacks."

The services sector, which makes up about three-quarters of the economy, will expand by 1.9% this year and 2.6% next year, the BCC said.

But manufacturing will shrink by another 0.8% this year and construction will decline 1.2%, it predicts.

It also expects unemployment to fall to 2.45 million by the third quarter of next year, 200,000 lower than its prediction in May.

It reckons unemployment will hit the Bank of England's threshold of 7% - when the bank will consider raising interest rates - in the fourth quarter of next year. This is earlier than its prediction of late-2016.

The BCC also forecast that net public sector borrowing will come in at £116.3 billion this financial year, £3.5 billion lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility's prediction in March.

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in