Mamma mia! We now have 65bn reasons to fear Italy

11 April 2012

Here's a number that should concentrate the mind of Chancellor George Osborne, Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King and anybody else with an interest in steering the UK away from recession: £65 billion.

That, according to the Bank for International Settlements, is the amount UK banks are on the hook for in Italy at the end of June - sovereign debt, bank loans and potential derivative exposure.

It's so large because Italy is the world's eighth-largest economy and the third-biggest bond market with some 1.9 trillion (£1.63trillion) in debt.

Any hint of a wobble on those kind of numbers is a recipe for a financial heart attack of epic proportions, and Silvio Berlusconi's crumbling government hardly adds to confidence. Without European Central Bank bond-buying, Italy might already be paying 7%.

The Brussels summit of European leaders as well as the Cannes G20 pow-wow were always going to be judged by their ability to quash fears Europe's crisis would engulf Italy. But there's no "big bazooka" on the table - or even close - because of European reluctance to boost the size of the bailout pot, and no firm deal on raising firepower from the IMF. Italy is in worse shape than it was two weeks ago and that is a worry for us all.

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