Alarm bells, not cash tills, are ringing this Christmas

10 April 2012

Make no mistake: looming public spending cuts and a VAT hike make this is a huge Christmas for retailers.

And another dose of heavy snow on the biggest shopping weekend of the year must be bringing many of the biggest names on the high street out in a cold sweat.

Alarm bells are ringing over the potential impact of the weather on consumer spending and the wider economy, which is already likely to slow from the 0.8% seen between July and September.

The data so far have been mixed on the build-up to the festive season, with bullish reports from the CBI despite the snow but sluggish sales growth in official figures yesterday.

When the winter weather struck at the start of the month, there was enough time for people to make up the ground but another heavy hit this weekend, and potential transport disruption, could leave last-minute shoppers exposed.

Consumers will still spend money if they can't reach the big centres, meaning that money is still being pumped into the economy, but they are likely to spend it more locally, which could put pressure on the stocks of smaller stores and leave some disappointed.

A longer-term impact of the snow, however, may well be on online retailing as thousands of shoppers left without gifts this year pay far closer attention to the weather forecast before clicking "buy".

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