You have to have a sense of humour to be a Liberal Democrat. For a party staring down an electoral gun barrel, assembling in the driving rain of Brighton, its members are in surprisingly good heart.
The third force in British politics has always attracted a particular type, fighting to make themselves heard in a media culture that ignores or disdains them. Now, halfway through a term of government with unlikely bedfellows, the Lib-Dems hover between electoral annihilation and the prospect of another term in power. That they don’t know which one it will be is only one of the many confusing aspects of their current predicament.
Here are two more: a party that is determined to increase taxes on the rich, particularly their “mansions”, is in coalition with a party that has just reduced income tax for the rich. And a party that is avowedly pro-European has to work with a partner that may end up offering voters a referendum on quitting the EU.
The term “embattled” could have been invented for Nick Clegg. He struggles to explain these various contradictions; he struggles to play down mutterings about his leadership; he struggles to justify his decision on tuition fees and then to live down the mockery.
What, however, if the conventional wisdoms turn out to be wrong? What if, come 2015, Clegg is not a goner? What if the Lib-Dems survive, losing no more than a dozen MPs, and are put in the enviable position of having to decide between Labour and the Conservatives next time around?
This scenario is unlikely. But it is not impossible. The Lib-Dems are relying on the beginnings of economic recovery, combined with a sullen appreciation that they have smoothed the rougher edges of the Tories. But they know that won’t be enough and that’s why Clegg has gone on the front foot, talking about how he wants the rich to pay their fair share in taxes.
If Messrs Cameron and Osborne don’t oblige, he’ll kibosh further welfare cuts.
But will he? Or will he fall into line as he has done often over the past two and a half years? There is no shortage of battles to fight.
Delegates in Brighton are looking for significant concessions on at least two terrible pieces of government legislation — on a snoopers’ charter that will increase the powers of the state to spy on emails and social media, and a bill that will allow court proceedings to be held in secret, under the vague pretext of civil liberties. The retreat of the Government into Whitehall’s default position of authoritarianism provides the Liberal Democrats with a rallying cry.
Clegg will survive the week relatively unscathed. He and his aides know that the bigger threats to his survival lie elsewhere, starting at the Conservative conference in two weeks’ time. David Cameron — who is under greater threat from Boris than Clegg is from Vince — has shown in his recent reshuffle that he is minding his flank on the Right. He will offer his hardliners more red meat to chew on.
Read More
With the conference season over and the rhetoric dispensed with, Cameron will have to decide which part of his coalition to work with. For Clegg, the moment of no return will then beckon.
