Don’t panic but… there’s a coffee shortage looming

Industry experts warn that cheaper prices could lead to an impending coffee bean shortage
Crisis looming: coffee
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Liz Connor5 January 2016

It’s not the news you want to hear on the difficult first week back to work after the Christmas break, but we might be headed for a coffee shortage.

You may be paying less for your morning cup of coffee today, but experts warn that the rising demand for high end coffee could lead to a global crisis within three years.

Coffee prices are falling for both Arabica and Robusta beans, two varieties that make up the lion share of coffee consumed in the world.

In the US, the prices of Arabica beans fell by nearly thirty per cent this year to $1.1915 a pound. This led to the average retail price falling $4.412 a pound in November, the lowest since February 2011, Bloomberg reports.

Experts are now saying that the prices are set to continue to lower over the next few years.

While this is great news for your wallet, it may have a larger global impact on coffee production.

High-quality Arabica is grown at very high altitudes on farms that are often less than a hectare in size and have low yields. And while we’re a nation of high class coffee-lovers, the luxury drink is still being priced as a relatively cheap treat.

The US Department of Agriculture has predicted that consumption will be of ‘record quantities’ this year, with production to increase by 6000,000 bags in 2016 to meet demand.

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Now analysts believe that an imbalance between demand and suppliers is unsustainable as coffee shops continue to open globally, consumers opt for specialist drinks and the trend for artisan home coffee machines rises.

This means that consumers are not only drinking more cups of coffee, but each cup of luxury brew has a higher coffee content - significant news for coffee workers and employers who will be faced with producing more while prices continue to decline

The insight comes as it's predicted that the world's coffee supply may also be at risk due to other factors. Global warming is believed to threaten a quarter of output in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer.

A recent study from Royal Botanic Gardens and the Environment Coffee Forest Forum found that areas for growing coffee would be reduced significantly by 2080 due to changing climate conditions, which could result in a huge price hike.

Perhaps it's time to stock up ahead of the drought?

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