Dear Leader is the biggest obstacle to a united Korea

12 April 2012

A revelation that China is apparently willing to accept Korean reunification provides a glimmer of hope that one of the world's most dangerous military stand-offs could end peacefully.

One of the biggest obstacles to defusing the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear armed leader Kim Jong-il has been the strong public support that he has received from Beijing, making him seemingly immune from diplomatic and military pressure from the West.

The leaked cables suggest that this Chinese backing is far less robust than previously thought and that Beijing could be persuaded to allow its ally to be subsumed into a reunited nation under South Korean control.

That would remove a key prop to the long-term survival of the Communist regime in Pyongyang in an important step forward to ending the threat of a nuclear conflict.

There are, however, many caveats. The first is that, despite its apparent behind the scenes willingness to abandon its North Korean ally, China is certain to resist any peace or reunification moves driven by US pressure.

Equally problematic is the "Dear Leader", Kim Jong-il himself. Armed with nuclear weapons, potentially unstable and keen to hand power to his son after his death, he is unlikely to accept any move to eject him, or to see his country disappear, and will be difficult to dislodge.

The reality? Years of difficult diplomatic manoeuvring will be needed before any breakthrough can be achieved.

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