Nine cabinet ministers would be out with this swing

12 April 2012

Under pressure: Labour MPs have given Gordon Brown a year to prove himself


Nine Cabinet ministers would lose their seats if the 17.6 per cent swing to the Tories in the Crewe by-election was mirrored at the next general election.

The scale of the potential disaster sent Labour MPs into panic mode as they realised more than 200 out of 350 could be turfed out of the Commons.

Cabinet ministers at risk are Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, Business Secretary John Hutton, Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly, Justice Secretary Jack Straw, Children's Secretary Ed Balls, Universities Secretary John Denham, Culture Secretary Andy Burnham, Chief Whip Geoff Hoon and Chancellor Alistair Darling.

Although nobody expects a by-election protest to be mirrored in a national election, the consensus at Westminster was that no Labour MP with a majority of 3,000 or less was safe.

Dozens of backbenchers and junior ministers in crucial marginals around London and the South-East appear to be in a hopeless position, including education minister Bill Rammell, Glenda Jackson and whip Claire Ward.

The effect can only increase pressure on Gordon Brown as backbenchers terrified of being turfed out of seats they thought safe consider how to save their own necks.

In the dying days of Conservative rule under John Major, party discipline broke down altogether as desperate backbenchers joined rebellions on local issues in attempts to cling on to their seats.

Ms Smith is the most vulnerable Cabinet minister, with her majority of 2,716 in Redditch cut to below 2,000 by boundary changes. A three per cent swing would see her out.

Ms Kelly, MP for Bolton West, has a majority of 2,064 but after boundary changes increased it to an estimated 4,000 she probably felt safe as it would take around a nine per cent swing to oust her. That now looks possible in her seat, formerly held by a Tory minister.

Victorious: A jubilant Tory candidate Edward Timpson

Mr Rammell is MP for Harlow, where the Conservatives recently seized control of the council.

Their surge left his majority of 97 looking paper thin. Ms Ward, who was the youngest MP when she won Watford in 1997, has only a 1,148 majority over the Lib-Dems.

Also vulnerable to the third party is Emily Thornberry, MP for Islington South and Finsbury, whose 7,280 majority in 2005 is slashed to roughly 484 by boundary reforms.

Rudi Vis, MP for Finchley and Golders Green,is the number one Labour target for the Conservatives.

His 2005 majority of 741 is reduced to an estimated 31 after boundary changes. Laura Moffatt, PPS to Health Secretary Alan Johnson, is defending a minuscule majority of 37 in Crawley.

Celia Barlow, PPS to innovations minister Ian Pearson, has just 420 votes in hand in Hove. Ms Jackson's 3,279 majority is reduced to a third of that size by boundary changes in Hampstead and Kilburn.

Others in the "killing fields" of the South-East include Martin Linton, nursing a 163 majority in Battersea, Phyllis Starkey, with an estimated majority of 483 after boundary changes in Milton Keynes South, and Howard Stoate, holding Dartford by 706.

Disaster: The Tories won the by-election by more than 7,000 votes

Tensions between Labour MPs and whips have risen in recent weeks, with the revolt over the 10p tax rate and the looming vote on 42 days' detention for terror suspects.

They look set to increase, making crunch votes even more difficult to win in future as fewer MPs are willing to upset local voters on unpopular issues.

The danger for Mr Brown is the unease will spread to the party's grassroots after the defeat in Crewe.

At risk: Home Secretary Jacqui Smith could lose her seat at the next election

Backbenchers fear that Labour is becoming so damaged that it could be out of power for 10 or 15 years unless urgent changes are made before going to the country.

Next year's town hall and European Parliament elections on June 4 are being seen as a flashpoint because they will be the first truly nationwide test of Labour's popularity.

They are now expected to turn into a giant referendum on Mr Brown's first two years in power and if the results are bad yet again, he would almost certainly be pressured to quit.

Some MPs think a snap election with a young new leader such as David Miliband could minimise the scale of Labour’s looming defeat — or perhaps even deny David Cameron an overall majority.

Private discussions among MPs are focusing sharply on delegating a group of party heavyweights to see Mr Brown in private next year and explain he should go in the party’s interests.

They would assure him a dignified send-off if he went quietly — but threaten Cabinet resignations and in-fighting if he stayed.

Other scenarios are also being canvassed, including a formal leadership challenge or a stalking horse attack at No 10.

These are difficult under Labour’s rules, however, and the outcome could be bloody civil war.

Some MPs would like to send a delegation earlier but Mr Brown pre-empted them at his monthly press conference last week when he reminded the party he was elected unopposed only 11 months ago, so had a mandate to lead.

His supporters are making it clear he will fight off any attempt to unseat him.

Mr Brown believes he is going through a bad patch typical of mid-term governments and his fortunes will improve gradually.

He has faith in his strategy of setting “dividing lines” to expose Tory policies and put the pressure back on David Cameron.

A large group of Labour MPs believe a year on “probation” would prove whether Mr Brown’s optimistic forecast is right.

A former minister said: “If things do not improve — and I doubt they will — Gordon will have a choice. If he agrees to go next year he will get a dignified exit and recognition of his great achievements.

“But if he does not, he may end up as another John Major figure, clinging on to the wheel as the ship goes down and making the long-term problems worse.”

A STALKING HORSE, MEN IN GREY SUITS... WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

AS LABOUR MPs pondered their own futures in the aftermath of the Crewe defeat, there were four main scenarios opening up:

¿ Formal leadership challenge

A challenger would first require the backing of 20 per cent of Labour MPs — currently 70 of the 350 Labour MPs. A call for a contest would then have to be approved at the
annual conference on a card vote. If passed, Mr Brown would have to face a contest.

The chances of this happening are low because it would be hard to persuade 70 MPs to put their heads above the parapet and heavyweights inside Cabinet would be obliged to rally behind Mr Brown unless they were willing to resign.

¿ A stalking horse challenge

A no-hoper would stand in order to unite Labour’s factions and force the PM to resign, at which point the real likely successors inside the Cabinet would be freed to stand in their own right.

The chances of this scenario are currently low but will rise if Labour stays on the ropes into the conference season. Margaret Thatcher was wounded in 1989 by stalking horse Sir Anthony Meyer. He paved the way for Michael Heseltine’s serious challenge a year later. But the aftermath was bloody.

¿ Men in grey suits

A delegation of Cabinet ministers and party heavyweights from all wings of Labour would troop into No 10 to tell Mr Brown he has lost their confidence and must stand down in the interests of the party. A threat of Cabinet resignations would add to the pressure.

It could well happen — but not for many months because the PM is currently determined to soldier on.

¿ Brown stays on

Only a minority of Labour MPs actually want Mr Brown to fail — so even a modest rise in party fortunes could rally them to his side.

The most likely scenario at present is that Mr Brown will simply keep soldiering on until a general election in 2010 — but in the current febrile mood at Westminster, his support could equally collapse.

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