The electric car revolution is heading your way

Do your bit to save the environment by making your next car electric
Illustration by Michelle Thompson
Illustration by Michelle Thompson
John Arlidge7 March 2019

We all know that our environment is under threat and we need to do something about it.

And it’s becoming harder to ignore, especially after many of us donned T-shirts last month when the capital basked in the highest February temperatures since records began, the latest sign of a warming climate, observers say. We Londoners, however, are starting to change our ways. Just try drinking through a plastic straw or buying a coffee in a disposable cup in front of anyone aged 30 or younger and see their reaction. But small measures are not enough. The biggest issue we face is pollution from vehicles. Health researchers at King’s College say pollution causes 9,000 premature deaths each year in the capital. Which is why next month Mayor Sadiq Khan will launch the toughest emissions charges for vehicles in any big city in the world.

Owners of up to 2.5 million diesel cars and vans built before 2015 and 2016 respectively, as well as most pre-2006 petrol cars, will have to pay £12.50 to drive into central London’s new ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ) every day, all day and night. This charge is on top of the £11.50 congestion charge, which operates from Monday to Friday. From October 2021 the ULEZ will expand to the area inside the North and South Circular roads.

“By the end of 2020, the number of electric vehicles in Britain will reach one million”

Emu Analytics

The Mayor has a vision: a quieter, cleaner London where roads will run free and silent with futuristic vehicles. The only by-product will be the odd drop of water from hydrogen-powered engines, like those already used by some London buses. It’s easy to dismiss this utopia as a (tail)pipe dream. Ever since Henry Ford and Thomas Edison worked on projects involving cars and the electricity that made it possible to build them, people have predicted a new era of ‘green’ electric motoring, only to do a U-turn when gas-guzzlers carried on guzzling gas. But this time it really is different; the (much delayed) electric car revolution is finally hitting the road. Over the next three years, cars such as the Kia e-Niro (the first EV — electric vehicle — to win What Car? Magazine’s Car of the Year award) will be joined by 75 new electric-only models, according to automotive research group Frost & Sullivan. By 2025 there could be 500 new electric models on sale, more than 10 times the number today. ‘The car is being re-invented with electrification,’ says professor Karel Williams of Manchester Business School.

The good news is that a British firm is leader of the e-pack. Jaguar’s new I-Pace all-electric car has been touted as the best practical EV in the world, winning almost 50 major awards in the past 12 months. Critics praise the car’s looks — a unique combination of a high-riding SUV, hatchback and sports sedan — and its handling. It does zero to 60mph in 4.5 seconds and will go up to 290 miles on a single charge. Ian Callum and Wolfgang Ziebart, the key executives behind the I-Pace, think it is the most important Jaguar since the iconic E-Type because, like that car, ‘it will define the next 40 years’.

What has transformed an industry that seemed wedded to fossil fuels? ‘Three words. Elon Musk Tesla,’ says auto industry commentator Gavin Green. Musk is the maverick who has developed all-electric sporty Tesla saloon cars and SUVs that have a range of up to 300 miles or more on a single charge. Their success (the slick Model S outsold the mighty Mercedes S-Class in the US last year and the new entry-level Model 3, out this month, is expected to send sales surging) has forced the big automakers to race to catch up.

And what a race it is. Mercedes, BMW, Renault-Nissan and Toyota will each unveil more than a dozen fully electric vehicles by 2022, including in BMW’s case, an electric Mini. Ford is spending $11bn to develop 16 battery-powered vehicles and 24 other electrified cars over the next five years. Every new Volvo car launched from this year onwards will be electrically powered in part. Half of the brand’s sales will be fully electric by 2025, says Håkan Samuelsson, Volvo’s CEO.

Of all the traditional car groups, VW is taking the boldest gamble by spending £25bn to develop electric cars in the next five years alone. More than 30 all-electric models will be unveiled by the VW Group, which comprises Seat, Škoda, Audi and Porsche as well as VW, over the next three years, soon rising to 50. VW’s decision to bet the farm on electric is largely due to the Dieselgate scandal. It installed ‘defeat devices’ designed to cheat emissions tests in the US and now needs to repair its image as fast as its engines. Vorsprung durch elektrisch.

The revolution is also attracting bold new players. Sir James Dyson, Britain’s best-known inventor, is betting almost a quarter of his £9bn fortune that he can take on the auto-giants. He will unveil his first electric car next year, which will be built in Singapore. In London, borough councils are doing their bit, too. Hackney Council has banned all petrol and diesel cars, vans and lorries from a network of streets near Old Street during morning and evening rush hour. The City of London aims to banish petrol and diesel traffic from half its roads by 2020.

It’s whizzy stuff, but it’s still early days. The number of purely electric cars on the road is minuscule. There are only 16,500 in the UK, far less than 1 per cent of all cars. As of May 2018, the number in London was 12,000. Meanwhile, there are 24,000 black taxis, which, despite most running on diesel, have got a free pass from Khan’s ULEZ charges.

What’s more, sales of electric cars have slowed by 21 per cent in the past 12 months because of concerns over a lack of roadside chargers. There are currently around 2,700 charge points in Greater London. That’s about 23 per cent of the total in the UK but it’s still far too few. Rapid chargers, those that can deliver enough charge in 10 minutes for 100 miles of driving, remain scarce.

But manufacturers and analysts are confident sales will rise — fast. By the end of 2020, the number of electric vehicles in Britain will reach one million, says Emu Analytics. One third of those are expected to be in London and the South-East. VW predicts around a quarter of all cars leaving its factories and hitting our streets will be electric by 2025. Mercedes and BMW forecast 15-25 per cent of total sales will be electric by then.

A larger charging network will help to drive sales. VW and Tesco have announced a joint venture to install 2,400 charging bays at up to 600 stores over the next two years. Modest 7kW chargers will be free to use but fast 50kW chargers will be billed at market rate. BP bought Chargemaster’s network of charging points last year for £130m and the oil giant is starting to install ultra-fast chargers on its forecourts.

The major hurdle electric cars still have to overcome remains price. Batteries are very expensive and often account for 40 per cent of the cost of an electric car. The I-Pace, for instance, starts at £60,000; Nissan’s Leaf, Britain’s best-selling electric car, at £26,690; and the BMW i3, at £34,445. Renault’s Zoe is more affordable at £18,420. However, these models are cheaper to run than a petrol or diesel car. ‘Fuel’ costs per mile are a fraction of an equivalent diesel or petrol model, although savings are less stark compared with hybrid vehicles.

One thing is certain. If your next car is around the corner, it’s electric.

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