Coronavirus: Daily average death toll dips below 100 for first time since start of UK lockdown, analysis shows

At the height of the UK’s coronavirus outbreak, the rolling average peaked at 943 on April 14

The UK's coronavirus daily average death toll has fallen before 100 for the first time since before the lockdown.

Evening Standard analysis of the figures released each day by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) put the average at 98 over the past week.

There were a further 67 deaths from the virus announced by DHSC on Saturday , taking the average below 100 for the first time since March 25, as the graph below reveals.

At its height in mid-April, Britain was losing an average of 943 people a day.

The average of 98 is based on the figures released each day of the past week. However there can be some minor readjustment in figures released by the department; taking the total death toll statistics released, then the average is 92, with Saturday still marking the first dip below 100.

The encouraging figures come as England emerges from a 103 day lockdown, with pubs, restaurants and salons reopening yesterday across the country .

But there are concerns an ease in restrictions will lead to a second spike in coronavirus cases.

The national R number — the reproductive rate of the virus — is unchanged from last week, at between 0.7 and 0.9, according to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

However, hours before drinkers descended on London's pubs and bars yesterday, it emerged that the R number in the capital had creeped above one, sparking fears of a fresh outbreak.

Last week the Government placed Leicester under a local lockdown following a spike in cases.

Jason Oke is a senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences at the University of Oxford.

He told the Standard: "The fact that seven-day rolling average is below 100 for the first time since March 25 is a welcome sign and reflects a trend for fewer deaths in all settings since early April.

"However, the DHSC figures do not represent the date of when the deaths occurred but when they are reported. This means the numbers are lower on Saturday and Sunday and tend to increase again after the weekend, hence the seven-day average should be used to interpret the overall trend.

"The decline is however is slowing and with 2,838 people still in hospital with COVID-19, and a number deaths that have occurred but are yet to be reported, we should expect to still see deaths throughout July and possibly into August."

The Department for Health and Social Care has been contacted for comment.

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