The tide could be turning against a feared “dementia tsunami”, with an almost 20 per cent drop in UK cases in the past two decades, a major study suggested today.
The research, led by the University of Cambridge, estimated there had been 40,000 fewer new cases of dementia than previously predicted, down from 250,000 to 210,000 a year.
But it said the fall had been seen mainly in men, possibly as a result of a drop in smoking and improved vascular health.
Professor Carol Brayne, director of the Cambridge Institute of Public Health, said: “Our evidence shows that the so-called dementia ‘tsunami’ is not an inevitability — we can help turn the tide if we take action now.”
The research, said to be the “most convincing” of studies indicating the incidence of dementia has dropped, suggests that improved education, better diet, not smoking and more exercise in mid-life can reduce the risk.
It challenges warnings that the ageing population will result in ever increasing numbers of people with dementia.
Teams at four UK universities interviewed 7,500 people in Cambridgeshire, Newcastle and Nottingham in the Nineties to check for dementia.
Twenty years on they interviewed a new sample, aged 65 and over, in the same locations.
This is the first time that a direct comparison of incidence across time in multiple areas has been conducted.
The study suggests there are just under 210,000 new cases per year: 74,000 men and 135,000 women. Professor John Hardy of UCL said: “An important and difficult question is what is behind this improvement: if we knew we could perhaps improve more and help reduce the incidence in women.”
Professor Brayne said: “Our findings suggest that brain health is improving significantly in the UK across generations, particularly among men, but that deprivation is still putting people at a disadvantage.”
Dr Rob Buckle, from the Medical Research Council, said the study — published in Nature Communications — showed the benefits of a “brain-healthy lifestyle”.
Professor Gordon Wilcock, of Oxford University, said the study shows “that changing our approach to how we live our lives is as important as developing drugs to treat dementia”.
