Thousands of people may die due to very hot weather in London and the South-East in future decades, experts warned today.
Academics predicted the number of heat-related deaths in the UK could jump to more than 3,000 by the 2020s and to 12,500 a year by the 2080s if measures are not taken to help people cope with higher temperatures.
The report stressed that London and the Midlands were the most vulnerable to heat. It also warned how the capital could be particularly affected by heatwaves rather than just higher temperatures.
The research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Public Health England, looked at projected population and climate changes. The experts noted a 2.1 per cent increase in the number of deaths for every 1C rise and a two per cent increase in mortality for every 1C drop in temperature.
The number of hot weather days is projected to rise steeply, tripling by 2080, they said. Meanwhile the number of cold days is expected to fall, although at a less dramatic pace. At present there are about 41,000 winter-related deaths and 2,000 summer deaths.
The authors predicted that without adaptation, the number of heat-related deaths will increase by 66 per cent in the 2020s, 257 per cent by the 2050s and 535 per cent by the 2080s.
Elderly people are most at risk, according to the new study.
Dr Sotiris Vardoulakis, head of the PHE’s air pollution and climate change group and co-author of the paper, said: “Higher temperatures can lead to greater-than-usual stress on the body, which can aggravate symptoms of those with chronic conditions.”
The number of excess deaths in winter will actually decrease to about 36,500 in 2080, added the experts.
