London population 'to top 10 million within the next 15 years'

 
Crowded: The bustling centre of London will get increasingly busy, according to new figures
Shoppers on London's Oxford Street on the last Sunday before Christmas Day. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Sunday December 22, 2013. Photo credit should read: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

London's population will top 10 million within 15 years as a soaring birth rate takes the number of people living in the capital to a record high, official figures showed today.

The Office for National Statistics said that the capital’s population, which was last measured at 8.3 million, would rise by 13 per cent over the next decade to hit nearly 9.4 million by 2022.

That will add the equivalent of the whole of Birmingham to London’s population and send the total well past the previous record for the capital registered in 1951.

But as the rapid growth continues, London’s population will rise further to hit a new peak of just over 10 million in 2029.

The dramatic figures - which also show that London’s population will grow at a faster rate than any other part of the country - will fuel new concerns about the shortage of housing and school places.

The population boom will also place added pressure on public services and intensify demands for the government to give the go-ahead for major new transport projects such as Crossrail Two.

Unveiling today’s figures, which project the population change in different regions of Britain between 2012 and 2037, the Office for National Statistics attributed the sharp increase to the capital’s young population.

It said this meant that nearly half of London residents were aged 16 to 44, the “main childbearing ages”, and that the number of children in the capital would leap by 16 per cent by 2022 as a result.

Detailed projections show that the number of children aged under four will be more than 50,000 higher by 2022, while there will also be 101,000 more children in the five to nine age group.

The statisticians said that the high proportion of young people meant that death rates would also be lower in London than elsewhere. The result was that “natural change” - the balance between births and deaths - would account for nearly 90 per cent of the capital’s population growth.

The report states: “London has a relatively young age structure. Nearly half the population are estimated to be [in] the main childbearing ages. This drives the higher number of births being projected in London over the next ten years, leading to a projected 16 per cent increase between 2012 and 2022.”

Migration, by contrast, is projected to account for only one tenth of London’s population increase. Today’s report says that this is because although large numbers of migrants come to the capital, many people also move out of the capital, reducing the net influx.

Statistics for individual boroughs show that some parts of London are likely to face particular difficulty in coping with the population surge with Redbridge projected to have an 18.6 per cent increase in residents by 2022 and Islington, Kingston-upon-Thames and Barnet all registered 16 per cent growth.

Tower Hamlets, which has the largest percentage increase, will have an extra 58,100 residents by 2022 - equivalent to a quarter of those currently living in the whole of Islington borough.

Today’s projections, which also show London’s population at 10.66 million by 2037, are based on the statisicians’ assessments of the impact of current government immigration policies and trends in births, deaths and migration.

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