Tessa Jowell set to win Mayor race for Labour, say polls

Tipped for City Hall: Tessa Jowell
Nigel Howard
Pippa Crerar8 September 2015

Labour is on course to win next year’s mayoral contest with Tessa Jowell regarded the only candidate who can beat Tory Zac Goldsmith, a new analysis of polling showed today.

A study of all YouGov surveys on the City Hall contest over the summer puts Labour four points ahead of the Conservatives overall, on 42 per cent to 38. However, the analysis lays bare the scale of Labour’s challenge as its lead comes primarily from inner London, where it is ahead by 48 to 31 per cent.

The party trails the Tories in their outer London heartlands, which Boris Johnson won over in the last two contests with his “doughnut strategy”, by two per cent, on 41 to 39 points.

Peter Kellner, YouGov president said: “Labour has done better in London than in the rest of the country but there is no room for complacency.

“Our analysis clearly shows that the Tories’ lead in outer London — enough to see Boris to victory in the last two mayoral elections — still exists.

“A winning Labour candidate will need to be capable of winning in the suburbs as well as central London”.

The study, from polling between June 8 and August 12, suggests Dame Tessa is viewed as the “best mayoral candidate” in both inner and outer London, and the only one who could beat Tory favourite Mr Goldsmith in both.

In inner London she would beat him by 64 to 36 per cent, excluding don’t knows, while in outer London she would win by a narrower 34 to 31 points, according to the polls.

Just one survey, by polling company Survation, has suggested her main rival in the Labour contest, Sadiq Khan, could beat Mr Goldsmith.

Labour insiders have warned against taking the mayoral contest for granted. Although the party is consistently ahead in the polls, it only captured seven of its 12 target seats at the general election, missing out on constituencies like Harrow East and Croydon Central.

Mr Goldsmith is also considered to be a challenging rival as his reputation as an independent mind gives him broad appeal across all parties.

It came as the Labour Party’s mayoral contest descended further into chaos today as it emerged the result would be delayed so votes could be verified.

The six candidates held a meeting at Labour HQ in Westminster to discuss the hold-up. The result of the race to represent the party in the City Hall election was planned for 9am on Friday — but is now expected after midday.

Westminster insiders dubbed the delay the Labour Party’s “biggest PR cock-up” since Ed Miliband’s “Ed Stone” of manifesto promises made during the general election.

The candidates are believed to be furious about the delay which means they may miss out on one of their best opportunities to put their message to Londoners in the media. Labour’s London chair, Len Duvall, said: “We are disappointed in the delay but this is for technical reasons beyond our control.”

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