Analysis: Tetchy diplomats seethe and spit amid repeated delays

David Cameron attends a meeting with European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
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The Long Brussels Friday has now gone from “inching to a deal” to “if there is a deal”.

The idea that it was all a bit of stage-managed play-acting(“Shakespeare without the skill,” was the sniffy verdict of former Europe Minister David Davis) does not square with the tetchy diplomats I saw in the Justus Lipsius building this afternoon.

They seethed and spat each time the plenary session of 28 leaders was repeatedly delayed from a 10am “English breakfast”, to an 11.30 brunch, then a 1.30pm lunch, 2.30pm talks, a 3.30pm and then finally an “English Dinner”.

“There are so many more important issues here to be discussed,” fumed an official, citing the delayed Syria and Libya talks.

We still do not know what David Cameron has conceded or where he has scored victories during his marathon in Belgium -- around 25 hours of solid talks and just three hours of sleep. But it may not matter because, once the deal is struck the spotlight will swivel quickly to a different kind of thriller back home in London.

Once Cabinet meets in the next 24 hours to discuss the terms, the gag on ministers saying what they really think will finally be lifted.

We will finally hear what Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling and Micahel Gove really think, not only about any deal in the PM’s pocket but on the bigger question of whether the UK should be In or Out of the European Union.

We now know that IDS has been arranging interviews on the Sunday political shows, which can only mean he is going to come out fighting for a Brexit. As the minister for welfare, his criticisms of the so-called emergency brake (I gather he thinks it will make almost no difference to migration levels, especially when George Osborne’s National Living Wage kicks in) will have major force.

And if Michael Gove is really leaning towards coming out as an Outer, that will put huge pressure on Boris Johnson to do the same.

Boris is easily the most influential of the Tories who have yet to say where they stand. His friends say he is “conflicted” and torn between his long-standing concern about sovereignty and his mayoral sense of duty to business leaders trading in the EU.

As the Evening Standard’s poll revealed this week, he is so popular with voters that Boris could almost single handedly cancel out the impact of Cameron’s own pitch for an In vote. On the other hand, if he swings behind his old friend Dave, that fact alone might allow the PM to have some much needed sleep tomorrow night.

No 10 insist that Cameron’s proposals would ensure “fundamental change in the relationship between Britain and Europe”. Well, they would say that, as Christine Keeler almost said. It’s clear that Cameron has made compromises on issues like Child Benefit and tax credits, while the French are claiming they extracted concessions on the City of London.

Meanwhile, the European Commission and the European Parliament will each get a chance to reinterpret the agreement when they begin the formal process to enact it – which won’t begin until after the UK referendum has delivered a Stay vote.

But perhaps it does not matter, since few voters will decided on the strength of this hard-won but in places impenetrable deal. They will be voting on much bigger questions, like jobs, their sense of identity and, for many, immigration.

I suspect Cameron knows it is in the Stay campaign’s best interests to stop talking about the fine detail of his reforms and move onto bread and butter issues like the economy that the public can actually understand.

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