Brexit odds: Will there be a General Election or second referendum? Could Theresa May leave? How likely is a no deal Brexit?

Olivia Tobin|Tom Herbert16 January 2019
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After Theresa May’s crushing defeat in her Withdrawal Agreement vote, odds are suggesting the UK may not leave the EU by the March 29 deadline as intended.

The Prime Minister suffered the biggest ever Government defeat over her Brexit deal she had spent months negotiating.

Her deal was voted down by 432 MPs, while only 202 were in favour of it.

Mrs May indicated she would not resign, but bookmakers have odds on her early departure.

The odds of Britain voting to remain in the EU in a second referendum also hit a record-low on Wednesday.

Theresa May following the vote
Sky News

Brexit odds: Will the UK leave the EU by March 29?

Betfair has odds of 1/5 the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29 and odds at 9/2 we will.

Katie Baylis, from Betfair, said: “If the Government and Theresa May can withstand the storm then some sort of a deal still needs to be passed to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

“With so many possible outcomes, issues and controversies ahead, we are expecting a huge amount of movement across all UK political markets in what is almost without doubt the most tumultuous period in British political history.”

No deal Brexit odds

Betfair has odds at 1/12 that the Commons won't pass the Brexit vote before the March 29 deadline.

According to Oddschecker, the likelihood that there will be a no deal Brexit is quite high.

Both Ladbrokes and Coral have odds of 3/1 that the UK will leave the EU with a no deal Brexit before April 1.

Next Conservative Party leader odds

Odds against Mrs May’s political future have also been placed, with the chances of her leaving between January and March 2019 at 9/4, and for her to leave between April 2019 and June 2019 at 9/4.

Boris Johnson is heavily tipped by Betfair to be the next Conservative Party leader, with odds in his favour at 6/1, followed by Sajid Javid at 7/1 and Dominic Raab at 15/2.

Next Prime Minister odds

If the country is to have a new Prime Minister following the vote, Betfair place Jeremy Corbyn at 4/1, Boris Johnson, at 13/2, and Sajid Javid at 8/1 as the firm favourites.

Followed after the politicians, Dominic Raab, at 11/1, and Michael Gove, at the same odds, are also contenders to replace Mrs May.

Prime Minister after Theresa May

Jeremy Corbyn - 4/1

Boris Johnson – 13/2

Sajid Javid – 8/1

Dominic Raab – 8/1

Michael Gove – 1/100

Jeremy Hunt – 9/1

General Election odds

The chances of another General Election are also strong, with Betfair suggesting a new election in 2019 at odds of 6/4.

Following the vote, Mrs May said: “It is my duty to deliver on their instruction and I intend to do so."

Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman has said Labour could table another motion of no confidence in the Government if they lose Wednesday's vote.

Second referendum odds

The odds of Britain voting to remain in the EU in a second referendum have never been shorter, according to bookmakers.tv.

For the first time, odds with the bookmaker have moved in favour of remain winning a second poll - with it now being odds-on at 8/11.

Betfair has odds of 5/4 that there will be another EU referendum before 2020, and 5/8 that there won't.

Ladbrokes and Coral both have odds of 6/4 that there will be a second referendum before the end of this year.

Brexit: Prime Minister after Theresa May - In pictures

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