Ed Miliband's pollster has dramatically warned that Labour is losing the argument on welfare reform, the Evening Standard can reveal.
Polling expert James Morris told a private meeting that voters in “politically salient target groups” were overwhelmingly likely to support rather than oppose controversial Government benefit changes.
He warned: “The challenge is very severe.” Voters on average backed the reforms being driven through by David Cameron’s Government by about two to one — but among Labour-Conservative swing voters the divide was a huge 64 per cent to nine per cent.
Worse, those voters who sided with Mr Miliband by opposing the reforms were mainly confined to a minority who saw themselves as centre-Left or “very Left”, including Mirror readers, Guardian readers, the unemployed, and existing Labour voters.
In a secret recording of the event, passed to the Standard, he went on: “If you look at politically salient target groups those numbers get worse.”
The findings are a severe blow to Mr Miliband’s decision to oppose most benefits cuts. They come days after he demoted former welfare spokesman Liam Byrne, who had warned that too many voters assumed Labour supports “shirkers”.
The bad news comes from a trusted source. Mr Morris learned the art of political polling and strategy at the feet of legendary New Labour pollster Philip Gould, worked in Downing Street and advised Mr Miliband’s successful leadership campaign.
His presentation, at a TUC-run discussion called “winning the argument on welfare”, gave results from a private poll commissioned by the TUC.
Among key findings, the Tories were ahead among the swing voters they aim to capture from other parties. Among Conservative-Ukip swing voters, the welfare reform were backed by 84 per cent to seven per cent. Among Conservative-Lib Dem swing voters, backing was 77 to five.
Among Labour/Lib Dem swing voters, it was evenly balanced.
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This morning Mr Morris confirmed that his presentation showed the Conservatives had a “very good story on welfare reform” but he denied that Labour was losing the argument.
A Labour spokesman said: “We will deal with the scandal of a million unemployed and the lack of affordable homes which have driven up the welfare bill. That’s how we will win the welfare debate.”
But one insider warned: “This poll shows voters want the welfare system to change — and Labour won’t win if they are seen as going back to the past.”
