Donald Trump’s fourfold Brexit trade boost claim gets thumbs down from No10

Getty Images
WEST END FINAL

Get our award-winning daily news email featuring exclusive stories, opinion and expert analysis

I would like to be emailed about offers, event and updates from Evening Standard. Read our privacy notice.

Donald Trump's boast that US-UK trade would “quadruple” after Brexit was doused in cold water today as the Government published its proposals for a future agreement.

Far from the surge that the US President predicted, the Government assessment put it at around a 7.5 per cent increase in trade flows, worth around £15.3 billion.

For London, the boost to the economy would be £650 million which leading economist Howard Archer pointed out was “hardly a game-changer”.

London, whose powerhouse services sector was not covered, will gain less from a US trade deal than other regions including Scotland, the analysis showed.

It also confirmed that the economic benefits of a trade deal with America would be much smaller than the estimated losses caused by Brexit to growth of up to 7.6 per cent .

In September at talks with Boris Johnson in New York, Mr Trump said: “We can quadruple our trade with the UK.”

Boris Johnson and Donald Trump
Getty Images

A month later, in an interview for LBC, he claimed “we can do many times the numbers that we’re doing right now”.

Economist Jonathan Portes described the more sober assessment published by the Department for International Trade showed the benefits “are de minimis compared with the economic costs of its Brexit proposals”.

Today’s formal launch of the US trade talks mandate was timed to coincide with the first round of talks between EU and British negotiators in Brussels, symbolising Mr Johnson’s strategy of playing each side off against each other.

International Trade Secretary Liz Truss warned the EU that Britain will take a tough line against France in a dispute over post-Brexit fishing rights.

Ms Truss
Reuters

“We are not going to trade away our fishing in a deal with the EU or any other negotiating partner,” she said, following French threats to block a deal if its fishermen are barred from UK waters.

UK negotiator David Frost and 100 British officials were sitting down with EU counterparts led by Michel Barnier for talks so large they could not fit in the European Commission HQ.

On the US talks, Ms Truss said it would be a “red line” to reject foods that did not confirm to UK safety standards. She also rejected Mr Trump’s demands for drugs prices paid by the NHS to be on the table.

“I can absolutely guarantee that in a trade deal with the US we will not diminish our food safety standards and we will also not put the NHS on the table or the price the NHS pays for drugs on the table,” she said.

She added: “If we don’t get the deal we want we will be prepared to walk away.”

The EU talks are due to end in December at the latest. They cover everything from aviation to nuclear isotopes to student exchanges.

A second round will be held in London later this month, with further meetings every two to three weeks.

“All in all, it’s already clear that June will be a difficult month. It is hard to see much progress being possible by then so things will start getting tense,” said one EU diplomat involved in Brexit talks.

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in