UK election polls: Experts split over tactical voting in key London battlegrounds

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A battle has erupted over tactical voting advice that could be more influential than ever in some of the country’s key election battlegrounds.

Rival websites have clashed over whether voters who want to oust the Government should pick Labour or the Liberal Democrats on December 12.

The scale of what is at stake was revealed today to the Standard in an analysis that predicts Labour could lose or win in a dozen seats in London alone, depending on whether the public vote tactically.

It suggests the Lib Dems could win 12 seats in the capital — three times as many as they won in 2017 — if up to three in 10 people back a party they do not usually support.

However, although the tactics only work if people are prepared to unite behind a list of candidates, there is anything but unity among the main groups giving advice.

In London’s most marginal seat, Kensington, the anti-Brexit group Best for Britain is calling on pro-Europeans to vote against the sitting Labour MP Emma Dent Coad and vote for Sam Gyimah, the former Conservative minister who defected to the Lib Dems.

Its advice is contested because Ms Dent Coad backs Remain and the Lib Dems came third in 2017.

Best for Britain said it believes the Lib Dems have the best chance of winning, despite coming third in the past three general elections. Rival website, tactical.vote, which is anti-Conservative rather than pro-EU, disagrees, saying Ms Dent Coad stands the best chance.

Similar arguments are raging over Wimbledon, Hendon and Putney —key marginals Labour has won in the past but the Lib Dems have never won — plus Croydon South and Orpington.

In Hendon, the Lib Dems scored just 1,985 votes in 2017, compared with 24,006 for Labour and 25,078 for Conservative winner Matthew Offord. Best for Britain claims the Lib Dems have overtaken Labour in the seat, based on its own analysis.

The People’s Vote campaign, which backs a second referendum, is working on its own list and sources have told the Standard that they have identified 101 seats where their advice differs from that of Best for Britain.

In addition, the pro-Brexit group Leave.EU is working on an app that will advise Eurosceptics to vote for the Brexit Party in some key seats instead of the Conservatives.

Best for Britain insists its advice is unbiased and based on an analysis using the controversial MRP method that predicts local results based on local population, UK polling and other factors. It has not published the formula it used to derive the results.

The group’s analysis for London predicts Labour’s vote share is down from 55 per cent in 2017 to around 33 per cent. Without tactical voting, Labour would win 43 seats (down six from 2017), Conservatives 24 (up three) and Lib Dems six (up three).

However, if three in 10 pro-Remain voters took the group’s advice, Labour would win 49 seats (same as 2017) and the Lib Dems would get nine (up six).

Labour critics of Best for Britain say its staff include Lib Dem supporters, including the group’s CEO Naomi Smith, who is a former candidate.

Felicity Buchan, the Conservative candidate at Kensington, accused the Lib Dems of “shockingly misleading” polling. She knew one local voter who had been called by pollsters and asked how they would vote “if this came down to a race between Labour and the Lib Dems”.

She said: “They then brief the results to the media as this is a two-horse race.” Questioned about a similar tactic in Somerset, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson claimed it was transparent.

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