London's key General Election 2017 battlegrounds: The constituencies where the poll will be won or lost

Robin de Peyer11 May 2017
WEST END FINAL

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Labour’s grip over London appears to be slipping as the Tories are boosted by the collapse of Ukip.

Jeremy Corbyn has seen his party’s lead over the Theresa May’s Conservatives slip from nine points to five since the 2015 General Election, new polling by YouGov shows.

And the Liberal Democrats’ clear anti-Brexit message could see them pick up seats in Remain-supporting seats such as Twickenham and Kingston & Surbiton.

Analysis by the Evening Standard suggests five London seats will change hands on June 8 – while another four are on a knife-edge.

Here is your guide to the most important swing seats in London – and what might happen there.

Swing seats:

Twickenham (Expected to swing from Conservative to Lib Dem):

Comeback trail: Lib Dem Sir Vince Cable
Rex Features

The west London seat was won by Remain-backing Tory Dr Tania Mathias in 2015, with a majority of 2,000. It was previously held by Lib Dem former Cabinet minister Sir Vince Cable since 1997. The 74-year-old is now set to stand again, and hopes his party’s clear anti-EU message will resonate with voters.

Brentford & Isleworth (Expected to swing from Labour to Conservative)

The seat swung from the Conservatives to Labour in 2015 as Ruth Cadbury won with a tiny 550 majority. Jeremy Corbyn’s party now fears the constituency could turn blue again as Mary Macleod – who held the seat from 2010-2015 – seeks to overturn Cadbury’s slender lead.

Ealing Central & Acton: (Expected to swing from Labour to Conservative)

Under threat: Rupa Huq MP 
Alex Lentati

Another seat the Tories hope to win back from Labour after losing it in 2015. Rupa Huq triumphed at the last election with a majority of less than 300 – making her vulnerable to a challenge from Tory candidate Joy Morrissey. Huq has been backed by Lib Dems including Sir Vince Cable and Sarah Olney as they hope to keep the Tories out of the west London seat.

Enfield North (Expected to swing from Labour to Conservative)

Conservative Nick de Bois hopes to regain the seat from Labour’s Joan Ryan in what will be the pair’s fifth head-to-head clash in Enfield North. Ryan currently has a majority of just over 1,000 – but if the swing from Tory to Labour expected nationally goes ahead here, de Bois looks well-placed to regain the seat he held from 2010-2015.

Ilford North: (Expected to swing from Labour to Conservative)

Corbyn criticl: Labour’s Wes Streeting 
GLENN COPUS

Jeremy Corbyn critic Wes Streeting was regarded as one of the success stories of the 2015 election by many Labour moderates as he overturned a 5,000 majority held by Conservative Lee Scott. But with a lead of only about 600 votes, Blairite Streeting appears vulnerable to a fresh challenge from Scott and faces a tough task to keep his seat.

Too close to call:

Hampstead and Kilburn (Currently Labour)

Slim majority: Labour's Tulip Siddiq
Daniel Hambury

Glenda Jackson’s old seat was held by Labour in 2015 as Tulip Siddiq edged out the Conservatives with a 1,138 majority. But she faces a fight to hold on against Tory rival Claire-Louise Leyland as Theresa May’s party looks to gain back a foothold in London.

Harrow West: (Currently Labour)

Labour’s Gareth Thomas has triumphed in the last five elections since Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 but now faces a challenge from the resurgent Conservatives. Thomas’s majority is about 2,000.

Westminster North (Currently Labour)

Labour’s Karen Buck triumphed in 2015 with a majority of about 2,000 and hopes to see off a challenge by Conservative councillor Lindsey Hall.

Kingston and Surbiton (Currently Conservative)

Former Lib Dem minister Ed Davey lost his seat in 2015 – but has confirmed he plans to take on Remain-backing Tory James Berry to try to win the seat back from him.

Possible surprises:

Richmond Park (currently Lib Dem)

Zac Goldsmith will stand again in the Richmond Park constituency
Alex Lentati

Lib Dem Sarah Olney faces another run-in with Zac Goldsmith after she stunned him in last year’s by-election. Back on a Conservative ticket, Goldsmith hopes to overturn Olney’s majority of just under 2,000. But he backed Brexit in an area which voted to stay in the EU.

Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Currently Labour)

Senior Lib Dem Sir Simon Hughes is running against Labour Jeremy Corbyn critic Neil Coyle.

Eltham (Currently Labour)

Labour’s Clive Efford held the seat since Blair’s landslide in 1997 and has a 2,693 majority – but now faces a challenge from Tory rival Matt Hartley. Losing the seat would count as a huge blow for Labour.

Dagenham and Rainham (currently Labour)

Senior Labour MP Jon Cruddas could be within the reach of Tory Julie Marson if Theresa May’s party has a successful polling day. Cruddas has a majority of 4,980.

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