Is Rishi Sunak facing a potential leadership contest and who could replace him?

A former Tory minister reportedly reveals more discontent about the embattled PM’s leadership, raising the spectre of a future no-confidence vote
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Penny Mordaunt has said she will keep backing Rishi Sunak, despite the uncertainty around the fate of the prime minister beyond Thursday’s local elections

The leader of the Commons said in Parliament on Thursday that the PM had her support - despite her name being in the frame to replace him.

As well as the Mayor of London vote, the London Assembly members are being elected, and there is also a by-election in Blackpool South. 

The speculation was enough for Labour MP Nick Smith to address Ms Mordaunt during business questions in the Commons. Ms Mordaunt said in return: “I… have read that I’m to be installed rather like a new boiler into No 10 next week, and I have to say there is as much truth to these stories as there is in Labour’s assurances to its business community that it isn’t actually going to do the things it’s been saying it’s going to do, as it’s promised its union paymasters.

“But let me say again, I support our prime minister and I will continue to support him after this weekend and beyond.”

In January, 60 rebel MPs opposed Mr Sunak's Rwanda bill, threatening to vote against the policy unless more stringent measures were added to the immigration proposal. Mr Sunak survived the rebellion and the bill comfortably passed its third reading. However, further challenges lay ahead as the House of Lords voted to delay the bill's progress.

At this point, Mr Sunak's position hasn't been formally challenged. But let's look at who could replace him should a vote of no confidence be called eventually.

Who could replace Rishi Sunak as prime minister?

Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch has the backing of senior Cabinet minister Michael Gove
Justin Tallis/PA Wire

The Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Kemi Badenoch, has risen through the Tory ranks at an impressive pace in the last few years.

Considered among potential frontrunners to be party leader, she has earned the support of several leading MPs, including Michael Gove. What's more, in the last Cabinet league table of 2023, she was ranked number one.

Ms Badenoch hasn't shied away from being in the public eye and has been vocal about several Tory policies. She has also locked horns with other Tory MPs in the past, most notably defending decisions to scale back post-Brexit plans to scrap EU laws.

James Cleverly

Cabinet meeting
James Cleverly has enjoyed an upward trajectory since becoming home secretary
PA

In December 2023, James Cleverly replaced Suella Braverman as home secretary, continuing his upward trajectory in the party. A popular figure among Conservatives, an experienced politician as well as an articulate speaker, some may see Mr Cleverly as a solid option to replace Mr Sunak and encourage unity in the ranks.

Mr Cleverly also played a key role in the Rwanda bill, having travelled to Kigali to sign the asylum treaty. With the future of the bill still uncertain after the Lords voted against its ratification, that might not play to his advantage.

Suella Braverman

Suella Braverman was sacked as home secretary in 2023 and is known to have leadership ambitions
Justin Tallis/PA Wire

Former home secretary Suella Braverman is a controversial figure due to her rhetoric on migration, rough sleepers, and Brexit.

At the same time, she has continued positioning herself as a prospective party leader and delivered some fiery political speeches that garnered applause from Conservative audiences. As a result, she could be a prime candidate to be the next leader. She also criticised Mr Sunak in 2023 after he sacked her, calling him "weak".

Seen as one of the most divisive Tories in the Commons, Ms Braverman was one of the rebels during January’s Rwanda vote. However, her divisiveness might not help her in a leadership contest — especially how much unity the party lacks.

Tom Tugendhat

Tom Tugendhat is part of the One Nation wing of the Tory Party
PA Wire

Security minister Tom Tugendhat came fifth in the 2022 leadership contest to replace Boris Johnson. He was among those who received the highest satisfaction rating in the Cabinet league table of December 2023.

Part of the liberal-leaning One Nation group, Mr Tugendhat and others in this Tory tribe have had diminished influence since the early Brexit days. He is a less likely leadership figure compared with other heavyweights on this list. The recent rebellion Mr Sunak faced suggests that more right-leaning figures wield a lot of power in the party.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has already tried twice to lead the Conservative Party
PA Wire

Penny Mordaunt has already tried to become party leader twice — and there's a strong chance she won’t stop there.

She is the leader of the House of Commons and a strong public speaker who could appeal to a wide audience, including more centrist MPs.

She also earned herself a standing ovation for her speech at the 2023 Tory Party Conference and had a prominent role at King Charles's coronation when she carried the ceremonial sword. However, her failed leadership bids suggest she would have to work hard to gain the backing required.

On May 2, she publicly denied her intentions to try and usurp Mr Sunak.

She said: “I support our prime minister and I will continue to support him after this weekend and beyond.”

Priti Patel

Dame Priti Patel has been out of the Cabinet since 2022 and may be planning a return as prime minister
PA Wire

The former home secretary has kept a relatively low profile since she resigned from the Cabinet in 2022. Yet, as a well-known senior Tory figure, could she be eyeing a leadership role in the future?

In any leadership contest, Ms Patel could be a less hard-line alternative to Ms Braverman if they were to go head-to-head. This could work to her advantage, helping Ms Patel unite the party at a crucial juncture.

At the same time, Ms Patel also made headlines over bullying allegations in her office, which might be a hard-to-shake-off reputation.

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