Antarctic ozone hole 'to close by 2050', scientists predict

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Jamie Bullen1 July 2016

The hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctic will close by 2050, scientists predict.

A study from the University of Leeds and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the US has found “clear signs” of an increase in ozone, which shields life on Earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays.

The study, published in the Science journal, said a yearly analysis of ozone hole has shown it has shrunk by more than 1.7 square miles since 2000 – about 18 times the size of the UK.

Research attributes the healing to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which introduced a ban on chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – widely used at the time in aerosol cans and cooling appliances.

And it is predicted the hole above the South Pole will close completely by 2050.

Professor Susan Solomon, who led the research, said: “We can now be confident that the things we’ve done have put the planet on a path to heal.

"We decided collectively, as a world, ‘Let’s get rid of these molecules’. We got rid of them, and now we’re seeing the planet respond.”

The ozone hole was first discovered in the 1950s using ground-based data and in the 1980s scientists found the total amount of ozone was starting to decrease.

The hole has continued to widen and reached a peak in 2000 when it measured at 15 million square miles, which has remained fairly constant over the past 15 years except for a few spikes

But new testing methods established volcanic eruptions caused the most recent spikes in ozone depletion and that the hole is starting to close.

Co-author Dr Anja Schmidt, an Academic Research Fellow in Volcanic Impacts, said: “The Montreal Protocol is a true success story that provided a solution to a global environmental issue.

The ozone hole starts to grow each year when the sun returns to the South Polar cap from August before it reaches its peak in October.

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