Forecasts of soaring rates of diabetes in the next two decades may be wildly underestimated, a new study suggests.
Evidence from Canada indicates that the diabetes "time-bomb" may be a far worse global health threat than anyone imagined.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that the prevalence of diabetes among adults will reach 6.4% by 2030 - a 60% increase since 1995.
But researchers found that in Ontario, the proportion of people suffering from the disease has already far outstripped that estimate.
Between 1995 and 2005, diabetes prevalence in the Canadian province rose by 69%
In just five years from 2000 to 2005, diabetes rates in Ontario increased by 27%. In comparison, the WHO has predicted a 39% increase in prevalence between 2000 and 2030.
The vast majority of these cases involve non-insulin dependent, or type 2 diabetes, which often goes hand-in-hand with obesity.
One reason for the surge in Ontario could be that the region has attracted a lot of immigrant southern Asians, who are known to be prone to the condition.
Despite this, the authors of the new research believe the new findings point to an alarming trend with potentially devastating consequences worldwide.
The disease occurs when the body cannot properly utilise sugar to provide energy. This results from either a lack of insulin - the hormone that controls sugar use - or because the effects of insulin are no longer felt.
