Flu vaccine could fail this year due to lack of data because of pandemic

PA
Leah Sinclair23 August 2021

The flu jab may fail to protect people this winter due to a lack of data, it’s been revealed.

Health experts were previously concerned that coronavirus restrictions had left people with less natural immunity but now worry the vaccine may also be mismatched to the circulating virus.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) issued guidance about what to put in northern hemisphere jabs in February, but vaccine makers say that global genetic sequencing of flu had fallen by up to 94 per cent in the months preceding the decision.

Global influenza surveillance has been handled through WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System since 1952.

But the pandemic meant that many labs have been repurposed to sequence Covid data, raising the risk of a mismatch, the Telegraph reports.

There are concerns that a mismatched flu vaccine, along with decreasing immunity and high levels of Covid, could result in health services being overwhelmed this winter.

Dr Beverly Taylor, Head of Influenza Scientific Affairs and WHO lead, at vaccine maker Seqirus, told the paper: “We saw quite a big reduction in the labs supplying the genetic sequence data to WHO, and around September last year, we saw a 94 per cent drop in the genetic sequence data that was reported into the database. So this has had a massive impact in the reporting.

“We could have reduced the opportunity to identify viruses as they emerge. We certainly have reduced the opportunity to look at which viruses would give the best overall protection and the best coverage of all the circulating viruses.

“What we’re actually seeing is influenza in geographical pockets, so it’s very difficult for us to tell which one is going to be the winner. We could potentially see a mismatch for at least one of the subtypes. And so that’s cause for concern.

“This winter, it’s going to be over 18 months since most of us have seen influenza and there is concern that we’ll see a lower level of population immunity.”

It comes after deputy chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) Professor Anthony Harnden, said the UK could be in a “really good place” this winter with the success of the vaccine rollout, but this may not be the case for flu.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme in June, he said: “I will emphasise that actually flu could be potentially a bigger problem this winter than Covid.

“We’ve had a very, very low prevalence of flu for the last few years, particularly virtually nil during lockdown.

“We do know that when flu has been circulating in very low numbers immunity drops in the population and it comes back to bite us. So, flu can be really, really important this winter.”

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