Leaked Sage report 'warns of worst case scenario of 85,000 deaths in Covid second wave'

A leaked Sage report presents a worst case scenario of 85,000 deaths a day
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April Roach @aprilroach2829 October 2020

A leaked Government reports suggests a "worst case planning scenario" of 85,000 deaths across the UK due to a second wave of coronavirus.

The report was produced by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) for the Government on July 30.

The worst-case scenario outlined in the report, which has been seen by the Spectator, is based on assumptions made about the rate of epidemic growth as a result of relaxing and re-implementing behavioural and social interventions, and it is not intended to act as a forecast or prediction.

It presents a scenario in which the UK could see 85,000 coronavirus-related deaths until March next year. Of the 85,000 deaths, 77,000 were said to take place in England.

Infections could peak at 100,000 a day, with 356,000 spending time in hospital, the report suggests.

The document warns of a scenario where infections could double every two weeks throughout November, after which plans would be put in place to "reduce non-household contacts to half of their normal pre-March 2020 lockdown levels" while schools remain open.

It suggests that these measures would be continued until the end of March next year.

Sage also warns in the report that deaths could surge in December with 500 or more dying each day for at least three months and a peak of 800 daily deaths towards the end of February.

It comes as experts have warned that the second wave of coronavirus in England has already reached a "critical stage" with an estimated 96,000 new infections per day.

The interim data from round six of the React study used data and swab results from 86,000 people between October 16-25.

According to the study, the overall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28 per cent – or 128 people per 10,000, up from 60 per 10,000 in the previous round which took place between September 18 and October 5.

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Infections were doubling every nine days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56, compared to 1.16 in the previous round, according to the Imperial College London study.

The report suggests interim estimates of R were above 2.0 in the South East, East of England, London and South West, but there is a greater degree of uncertainty around these figures.

The experts warn: “The co-occurrence of high prevalence and rapid growth means that the second wave of the epidemic in England has now reached a critical stage.

“Whether via regional or national measures, it is now time-critical to control the virus and turn R below one if further hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 are to be avoided.”

They add that the pandemic is growing exponentially, but say the effect of some of the most recent measures may not have filtered through to the numbers.

Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said the data from the React coronavirus study suggests “we need to think about changing the approach”.

“There’s an overall background change and then for whatever reason, some regions, some geographical areas, are just a little bit ahead, the virus is a little bit better in those communities,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“So it does suggest that we need to think about changing the approach. Because we’re getting to the stage where we have to see prevalence go down.”

When asked if this meant tightening local lockdowns or national restrictions, he said: “I think what our study shows is there would be genuine benefits to some kind of national policy.

“In that we could prevent the pattern in the south turning into the current pattern in the north and bring about a reversal in the north as quickly as possible.”

He added: “If we’re going to end up using those restrictions that have been brought in elsewhere in Europe today and yesterday, if we’re going to do that, we should think about timing. And sooner is better than later for these.”

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