Lib Dems slide to third in new poll

The Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg. Liberal Democrat support has fallen significantly over the past week, according to a new poll
12 April 2012

Liberal Democrat support has fallen significantly over the past week, according to a new poll, which gave Conservatives a clear lead ahead of the May 6 General Election.

The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph showed Nick Clegg's party dropping four points since a similar survey last week to slump into third place behind Labour.

The telephone poll of 1,019 adults, conducted on April 30, put Tories on 36% (up one point compared to a similar survey last week), Labour on 29% (up three) and Lib Dems on 27% (down four).

If repeated at the election on an even swing across the country, the figures would leave David Cameron at the head of the largest party in the House of Commons with 279 MPs - 47 short of an outright majority. Labour would take around 261 seats and Liberal Democrats would hold the balance of power with 78 MPs.

Meanwhile, a poll of 1,007 adults in key marginal constituencies suggested that Mr Cameron could be within hailing distance of an overall majority in the new Parliament, but dependent on support from Northern Ireland unionists to stand a chance of crossing the line.

The ICM survey for the News of the World, conducted on April 28 and 29, looked at 96 Labour seats which could fall to Tories on a swing of between 4% and 10%.

It suggested that Mr Cameron's party could end up with 311 MPs on May 7, with Labour on 229 and the Liberal Democrats on 78.

The Tories were down one point since a similar poll on April 9, with 35% of support in these constituencies, neck-and-neck with Labour (down two) and well ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 22% (up three).

The findings suggest a massive Tory gain of 113 seats since 2005, but would leave Mr Cameron 15 short of the 326 MPs he needs for an overall majority and give the balance of power to the Northern Irish parties, nationalists and independents.

With Sinn Fein unlikely to take up the handful of seats they are expected to win, and the Democratic Unionist Party likely to have around 10 or 11 MPs, the Tories could be on the brink of securing the slenderest of majorities if they could strike a deal with the DUP.

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