Met Office report: UK summers could be more than 5C warmer by 2070

Dry grass in Richmond Park after weeks of dry weather
Getty Images
Hatty Collier26 November 2018

UK summers could be more than 5C warmer by 2070 and weeks-long heatwaves are forecast to become the norm by mid-century, experts said today.

Summer temperatures could soar to 5.4C higher than current levels by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2C warmer if fossil fuel pollution stays high, the new UK climate projections from the Met Office show.

By mid-century, summers as hot as this year's weeks-long heatwave will be the norm, the researchers said.

The average temperature for this summer in the UK was 15.8C, 1.4C above average, which was one of the joint hottest on record.

In London, summer temperatures are expected to increase by between 3C and 5.5C by the end of the century, while winter temperatures could rise by between 1C and 3.5C.

Rising sea levels of more than a metre could threaten the UK 
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The new report into how climate change will affect the UK, the first of its kind in almost a decade, warns that heatwaves and rising sea levels of more than a metre could threaten the UK in the coming decades without action to cut greenhouse gases.

Rainfall could fall by almost half (47 per cent) in summer by 2070, while rainfall could be up by more than a third (35 per cent) in winter.

In London summer rainfall is expected to be down by 25 to 40 per cent by end of the century and winter rainfall up by 15 to 25 per cent.

Sea levels affecting London, where the Thames Barrier is expected to be in use to protect the city until 2070, could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100 if climate-warming emissions continue to climb.

Dry, brown grass in Hyde Park after a heatwave that lasted from June 1 to July 16 this year
AFP/Getty Images

Even if emissions are cut in line with the Paris climate agreement to curb temperature rises to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, sea levels could still be 29cm to 70cm higher in the capital by 2100.

Cardiff is expected to have similar sea level rises as London, while in Edinburgh seas could rise by as much 49cm with low emissions and up to 90cm with high emissions.

In Belfast, seas could be as much as 52cm higher with low emissions and up to 94cm by the end of the century with high levels of climate pollution.

Even if the world manages to curb emissions in line with the Paris climate agreement, the projections show the UK's average yearly temperature could be up to 2.3C higher by 2100.

Launching the new report into how climate change will affect the UK, the first of its kind in almost a decade, Environment Secretary Michael Gove said no-one could predict the future with absolute certainty.

In his first major speech on climate change, Mr Gove - who during the EU referendum claimed the public has "had enough of experts" - backed the scientists who had produced the projections.

"In producing this first major update of climate projections for nearly 10 years, they have given governments, local authorities, land managers, national infrastructure bodies and other businesses an invaluable set of tools with which to assess the nature and scale of challenges, and take decisions accordingly," he said.

The Environment Secretary said the UK was already feeling climate-related extremes, including record wet winters in 2013-2014 and 2015-2016, which caused flooding, and this year's heatwave, which led to wildfires and damage to agriculture.

Environment Secretary Michael Gove
PA

He said that in the UK: "Climate change will manifest itself most acutely when it comes to water - the intense rainfall of the winter, the arid heat of the summer and rising sea levels will be how we experience climate change most immediately in our everyday lives."

He told the audience at the launch event at the Science Museum that officials were already factoring projected sea level rises into planning for flooding.

Mr Gove said a new long-term approach would be needed on dealing with flooding, warning "it will not always be possible to prevent every flood, we cannot build defences to protect every single building or reinforce every retreating coastline".

To tackle droughts, he said new policies would help drive the construction of new water infrastructure such as reservoirs.

Farmers will receive payments to tackle climate change and boost productivity, from planting cover crops to protect soil to planting trees on agricultural land, while there will be measures to curb emissions from fertilisers.

Mr Gove said there would be new strategies to repair peatland, protect and create woodlands, and tackle emissions from food waste.

Overseas, the UK is giving another £13 million to restoring protective coastal mangroves in places such as Jamaica and Colombia, he announced.

The updated climate projections are launched on the 10th anniversary of the world-leading Climate Change Act gaining Royal Assent, committing the UK to cutting greenhouse gases by 80% by 2050 - a target which is being reviewed to see if it should be strengthened.

Met Office Chief Scientist Stephen Belcher said: “The new science in the UK Climate Projects 2018 enables us to move from looking at the trends associated with climate change, to describing how seasonal weather patterns will change.

“For example, heatwaves like the one we experienced in the summer of 2018 could be normal for the UK by mid-century.”

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