More than 100,000 UK coronavirus deaths by end of 2020 if lockdown ends early, disease expert warns

Ellena Cruse26 April 2020

The UK death toll could jump past 100,000 by the end of the year if lockdown is lifted too early, a top professor has warned.

Imperial College epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson said if the healthy go back to work while the vulnerable remain in lockdown there will be a huge increase in virus fatalities.

The expert said social isolation will need to be kept in place until a pharmaceutical intervention is found, whether that is a vaccine or treatment drugs, and one is unlikely within the next year.

His warning comes as the British Government faces intense pressure to reveal its Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy .

Speaking to UnHerd, Prof Ferguson said he is sceptical that the UK can achieve a level of shielding that will be effective.

"If you just achieve 80 per cent shielding - and 80 per cent reduction in infection risk in those groups - we still project that you would well over 100,000 deaths this year from that kind of strategy," he said.

Professor Neil Ferguson predicted a large number of deaths if lockdown ends early
UnHerd

The Government is under pressure from senior Tories to relax the strict social-distancing measures amid concern at the damage they are doing to the economy.

Sir Keir Starmer has also called on the Prime Minister to produce a clear lockdown exit strategy.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, who has been standing in for Prime Minister Boris Johnson while he recovers from the disease, said the Government would proceed “cautiously” in order to avoid a second peak in the outbreak and insisted restrictions would not be lifted early.

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in