Will there be another pandemic in the UK? Cabinet Office data shows chances of emergency

The register features 89 different threats and measure the likelihood of each threat taking place
The government has said that it has “robust plans” in place for each risk (Dominic Lipinski/PA)
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Lola Christina Alao4 August 2023

The cabinet office has released new data that shows the likelihood of another pandemic. The "national risk register" helps the public prepare for "worst-case scenarios" that could strike the country.

Other threats addressed in the register include the malicious use of drones to disrupt transport and other key bits of infrastructure, and potential disruption to undersea transatlantic telecommunications cables that are used for internet and communications.

Deputy National Security Advisor, Matt Collins, said: “A comprehensive understanding of the risks we face is critical to keeping the UK safe.

“This edition of the NRR, based on the Government’s internal, classified risk assessment offers even more detail on the potential scenarios, response and recovery options relating to the risks facing the UK; ranging from terrorism to conflicts and natural disasters.”

Will there be another pandemic?

According to the National Risk Register, the likelihood of another pandemic sits between 5% and 25% and would be "catastrophic" to the UK. Weather events such as heatwaves and storms range from "significant" to "moderate", with a likelihood of between 1% and 25%.

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden told Sky News: "The first duty of government is to keep people safe. And I think one of the things we can do to help keep people safe is to identify the range of risks facing the country.

"My whole experience, for example, during the COVID pandemic was the more open and transparent you were with people about the risks we’re facing, the better people could plan. And that’s precisely what this document is about.

"It’s for businesses, it’s for voluntary organisations, like the Red Cross and others, to see for the first time in such a high level of detail, the risks facing us and then the government is taking action to address those risks."

What is the National Risk Register?

The National Risk Register was created to measure the likelihood of an event happening, with above 25% being the highest score.

The register features 89 threats that would have a significant impact on the UK’s safety, security or critical systems at a national level. This version of the register is described as "more transparent than ever before" and also shares previously classified information about a number of potential risks. These include:

  • Disruption to energy supplies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
  • Malicious uses of drones to disrupt transport and other critical operations
  • Threats to undersea transatlantic telecommunications cables used for internet and communications

The government has said that it has "robust plans" in place for each risk and is also urging businesses, local government and voluntary groups to play their part in helping plan for them.

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