Pay deals have moved ahead of inflation for the first time in more than two years, but settlements are likely to fall "considerably" next year, according to a new report.
The ability of many employers to award above-inflation rises next year will be "severely affected" by the impact of the downturn, said pay analyst Industrial Relations Services (IRS).
Average pay deals in recent months were worth 3.8%, above the rate of inflation, although some were over 4%, the study of 79 settlements found.
Pay awards in the public sector were around 2.5%, while deals in manufacturing firms were worth 3.9%, according to the report.
Sheila Attwood of IRS said: "It will be welcome news for employees to see that their pay rises are finally worth more than inflation.
"However, with the economic situation worsening, and disposable incomes already severely stretched, it is unlikely to put a lot of extra money in people's pockets. Inflation is forecast to fall considerably in 2009, and there is no doubt that pay settlements will, to some extent, follow suit."
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