The Conservatives will have an overall majority of 70 in the next Parliament, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by YouGov and analysed by PoliticsHome, involved more than 33,000 online interviews across 238 marginal constituencies last month.
But the findings show that Tory supremacy has dwindled over the past 12 months.
A similar poll conducted this time last year predicted the Conservative overall majority as 146.
The poll predicts that, among the principal parties, the Conservatives would secure 360 seats, Labour 199 and the Liberal Democrats 55.
The pollsters found that the reaction to the expenses scandal was surprisingly mild. "The expenses sleaze in marginal seats is less than expected. Most people think their own MPs were either exonerated or do not seem to care," the analysts say.
PoliticsHome is a political website which describes itself as a non-partisan definitive source of political news and research.
