Third of Londoners ‘have had Covid’ as capital’s R rate ‘falls below 1’

Outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in London
The rate of new cases is falling across the capital
REUTERS
Luke O'Reilly15 January 2021

The R rate has dropped below one in London in a sign that the lockdown is beginning to have an effect, according to new research.

The researchers, from Cambridge University, also estimated that up to 36 per cent of Londoners may have already had the virus - the highest of any region in the UK.

The capital has been one of the regions hit hardest by the new mutation of coronavirus, with hospitals stretched to breaking point.

However, it appears that the rate of new cases is dropping in the capital.

Separate figures also show that cases are falling in 22 boroughs, showing signs that the virus may have peaked in London in early January. 

The R rate, short for reproductive rate, measures the average number of people that one infected person will pass on the virus to. If the R rate is below 1 it means that the number of new cases is shrinking.

Across England, the number of Covid-19 infections is falling as a whole.

The Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistics Unit Covid-19 Working Group said the current estimate of the daily number of new infections occurring across England is 60,200.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is due to release its own figures later, while Government scientists will release their own R rate.

The Cambridge researchers said regions with a current R rate below 1 are the East of England, London, the South East, West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber.

The capital may have the highest number of previously infected people in the UK 
AP

They say it is above 1 in the South West, North West, North East and East Midlands.

The team suggests the proportion of the population who have ever been infected in other regions could stand at 26 per cent in the North West and 21 per cent in the North East, dropping to 13 per cent in the South East and 8 per cent in the South West.

They added: “The growth rate for England is now estimated to be -0.02 per day. This means that, nationally, the number of infections is declining but with a high degree of regional variation.

“Infections are still increasing in the South West and North East, whilst plateauing in the West Midlands and East Midlands.”

The team also predicts that the number of deaths occurring daily is likely to be between 518 and 860 on January 28.

It comes as Public Health England (PHE) released data on Wednesday showing infection rates had fallen in most regions of England across all age groups apart from the over-80s.

At the same time, however, the PHE surveillance report noted that there were more people being admitted to hospitals and intensive care units.

NHS England data shows that around one in five major hospital trusts in England had no spare adult critical care beds on January 10.

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