Tens of thousands of students will be denied university places this summer following a funding freeze and a surge in applications.
Data to be published by Ucas is expected to show that applications to UK universities has risen by 9.7% in the last year.
It is thought the record rise has been fuelled by unemployed workers, and those facing an uncertain future, returning to education to improve their skills during the recession.
But the Government has capped the number of additional places available at universities in England for the next academic year, so no more than 10,000 extra students can be admitted. This was partly due to a £200 million shortfall in the budget of the now defunct Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills.
It is thought that just 3,000 of these extra places are for full-time first-year students.
It was originally suggested that up to 30,000 people will miss out on university places this summer, but it now looks likely that the number will be even higher.
The National Union of Students has previously estimated that at least 28,000 students will be refused a place, and last month, university think tank Million+ estimated that it could be up to 40,000 people.
Just 16,000 places could be available in clearing this August, Million+ said. Last summer 43,000 places were filled through clearing.
The Ucas figures, from a snapshot taken at the end of June, are expected to show that around 592,000 people have applied to start courses at UK institutions this autumn, up from around 540,000 at the same point last year.
Sally Hunt, general secretary of the University and College Union, said: "The Prime Minister boasted recently that he would not allow education to become a victim of the recession. Unfortunately, the Government is yet to do anything to suggest his statement was not merely rhetoric."
