When will the Iceland volcano erupt? Fears grow after earthquakes

Víðir Reynisson, director of civil defence, says: 'The likely time of something happening along the dyke, especially in the centre, if it happens, is within days'
FILE PHOTO: Lava spurts and flows after the eruption of a volcano in the Reykjanes Peninsula
Lava spurts and flows after the eruption of a volcano in the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland last July
Reuters

Scientists have predicted a new volcanic eruption phase in Iceland

On Saturday November 11, thousands of earthquakes rocked the southwestern peninsula of Reykjanes and the tremors caused a 15km long dyke to form, cracking the community in two as the ground was pushed upwards.

About 3,400 residents were evacuated from the town of Grindavik, which lies on the path of the expected fissure vent eruption. 

It last erupted in July 2021, after 800 years of inactivity, and this may have started “a new eruptive phase” which could continue for centuries, Cambridge volcanologist Clive Oppenheimer said. 

So is it safe to travel to the Nordic country? Here is what we know.

When is the Iceland volcano going to erupt?

Iceland's civil defence said there are “very clear signs of magma along the dyke” less than 1km below the surface. 

Víðir Reynisson, the director of civil defence said: “The likely time of something happening along the dyke, especially in the centre, if it happens, is within days not weeks.

“If this continues without an eruption the chance of one decreases with time pretty rapidly. But then we see the changes at Svartsengi which introduce possibly the next stage of this.”

It is unclear when the eruption will take place. Tamsin Mather, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Oxford, said the eruption could happen suddenly but the Icelandic Met Office is knowledgeable and well resourced.

Is Iceland safe to travel to?

The UK Foreign Office is not advising against travel to Iceland. The recent guidance said: "The Icelandic authorities continue to monitor the area closely, particularly the area north-west of Mt Thorbjörn near the Svartsengi power plant and the Blue Lagoon. On 10 November, a Civil Protection Alert was declared after an intense swarm of earthquakes.

"The town of Grindavík was evacuated as a precaution. Some roads have been closed and visitors are advised to stay away from the area. Keflavik International Airport is operating as normal. While there is no current eruption, it is increasingly possible that one could occur. You should monitor local media for updates and follow the authorities' advice on travel to the area."

What parts of Iceland have been evacuated?

The town of Grindavik has been evacuated a week ago as magma – semi-molten rock – rumbled and snaked under the earth amid thousands of tremors. 

How do people predict a volcanic eruption?

Scientists use a wide variety of techniques to predict volcanoes. These methods include:

  • Seismographic detection of the earthquakes and tremor that almost always precede eruptions;

  • Precise measurements of ground deformation that often comes with the rise of magma;

  • Changes in volcanic gas emissions;

  • Changes in gravity and magnetic fields.

When was the last volcanic eruption in Iceland?

The region's Fagradalsfjall volcano system had been dormant for 800 years until lava fountains erupted from a huge fissure in the ground in March 2021.

They measured between 500 metres and 750 metres long, and volcanic activity in the area continued for six months.

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