Ukraine may be ‘pausing counteroffensive’, says Institute for the Study of War

Think tank says Kyiv’s forces may be temporarily halting their operations to ‘re-evaluate their tactics’
Ukrainian service members are seen on their position at a front line in Donetsk region
REUTERS
Matt Watts19 June 2023

Kyiv’s forces may be temporarily halting their counteroffensive operations to re-evaluate their tactics for future operations, according to military experts.

Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg said on 16 June that in his assessment “we won’t see an offensive over the next seven days”.

The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on 17 June that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as the command in Kyiv re-examines tactics.

Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest update on the war that these reports are consistent with their recent observations of the scale and approach of localised Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern parts of the country.

It added that “Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to the counteroffensive operations and does not yet appear to have launched its main effort.”

“Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive,” it added.

However the ISW said that Ukrainian forces had continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 18 and made limited territorial gains.

It said: “Geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces made limited advances within 30km south of Kreminna.[1]Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces advanced more than a kilometre north of Avdiivka on the Donetsk City frontline over the past two weeks.

“Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka on the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and made some localized advances.

“Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces entered the western part of Pyatykhatky (41km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City), southwest of Orikhiv.”

Ukraine’s forces have liberated eight settlements in the past two weeks of their offensive operations, including the village of Piatykhatky, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Monday.

“In the course of two weeks of offensive operations in the Berdiansk and Melitopol directions, eight settlements were liberated,” Maliar said on the Telegram messaging app.

A Russian-installed official said Ukraine had recaptured Piatykhatky, a village in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, and were entrenching themselves there while coming under fire from Russian artillery.

Meanwhile the UK’s Ministry of Defence said on Monday that over the last 10 days, Russia has likely started relocating elements of its Dnipro Group of Forces (DGF) from the eastern bank of the Dnipro river to reinforce the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut sectors.

The DGF redeployment likely reflects Russia’s perception that a major Ukrainian attack across the Dnipro river is now less likely following the collapse of Kakhovka Dam and the resulting flooding, the ministry said in an update.

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in