Coronavirus will kill 147,000 in US by early August, experts warn

A man wearing a face mask walks past a "Don't Spread Covid-19" sign in Alexandria, Virginia
AFP via Getty Images
Michael Howie13 May 2020

More than 147,000 Americans will die from coronavirus by early August with the US facing thousands more fatalities as states relax lockdowns to curb the pandemic, experts warned today.

The latest forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is nearly 10,000 higher than its last projection, and comes after the nation’s top infectious disease expert warned of dire consequences from reopening too soon.

The model, which is frequently cited by the White House, predicts that the cumulative US death toll will climb to 147,040 by 4 August, up 9,856 from the institute’s previous update only three days earlier.

It had already nearly doubled its forecast from late April to nearly 135,000 deaths, citing steps in 30 states to ease social-distancing requirements.

The new figures make depressing reading for the Trump administration, which is clamouring to reopen businesses with unemployment hitting levels not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

“When we started off making projections, we had assumed that all the states were going to follow the New Zealand model, which is to keep social distancing in place until transmission gets to a really low level,” IMHE director Dr. Christopher Murray told CNN.

“We’re not doing that… We’re speeding towards relaxing social distancing.”

Earlier, Dr Anthony Fauci, a leading figure in the White House’s coronavirus task force, told a US Senate panel that prematurely ending restrictions on commerce and social life could have dire consequences.

Covid-19 has already infected more than 1.4 million Americans and killed at least 83,000.

In Chicago, healthcare workers enjoyed a flypast by the US Navy’s Blue Angels display team to salute first responders.

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