England primed for Six Nations Grand Slam defence and on course for New Zealand showdown

Defence: Eddie Jones led England to Six Nations Grand Slam success earlier this year
AFP/Getty Images
Dan Jones29 November 2016

The 2015 Rugby World Cup Final at Twickenham was only 13 months ago. It must be bittersweet for England to consider that if the tournament had been replayed this autumn, the sensible betting would be on them slugging it out with New Zealand for the crown.

England have one match left this year, against Australia this Saturday. Last autumn, Michael Cheika’s side embarrassed Stuart Lancaster’s motley band and sent them sprawling out of their own World Cup at the group stages. But if England win this weekend they will be revenged fourfold: a 3-0 series win Down Under capped by an encore at HQ.

It would complete England’s best calendar year of the professional era. They will have beaten every side they played, including three of the four World Cup semi-finalists. What a difference an Eddie Jones makes.

This is not to say England are yet a perfect side or a great one. They are simply getting back to where they should be. They are the best resourced in world rugby.

The sport ought to be a regular carve-up between them and New Zealand. The All Blacks know this: under Steve Hansen they own their hemisphere and rarely lose to anyone.

Jones’s job is to get England to the same place, so that the 2019 World Cup in Japan is a matter of black and white. And fair play to him: in 2016 he has made an excellent start. But there is no let-up. After Australia England will be steaming towards the 2017 Six Nations, in which they have a Grand Slam to defend. My gut feeling is that while it will be trickier than last year, England are good enough to do it. They open at home against France, who have not won at Twickenham since 2007. France looked mighty in a 52-8 victory over Samoa, then lost close games to New Zealand and Australia. They are improving under Guy Noves but I feel they will not be strong enough. Wales in Cardiff is a nightmare from which England have more or less now awoken, after the 30-3 loss there in 2013. And the Welsh autumn has been, frankly, weird. They were marmelised by Australia, crawled past Argentina, inched past Japan and strained to beat a South African side described by Brian Moore as the worst ever seen.

Rob Howley, standing in as Wales head coach, has won matches but not hearts, and his attempt to turn an ultra-structured Welsh team into a free-thinking 1970s tribute act has been about as convincing as Ed Balls’ transformation into Fred Astaire. Last time they loaned Warren Gatland to the Lions they won the Six Nations. Somehow it doesn’t feel as though history will be repeated.

Italy and Scotland, the Six Nations’ punchbags, visit Twickenham on successive weekends next spring. Both advanced this autumn. Italy beat South Africa, although that may say more about the Springboks than them.

Carve-up: Under Steve Hansen New Zealand own the southern hemisphere
Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

Conversely, Scotland lost — again — to Australia but showed just how far Vern Cotter has brought them in his short tenure, which ends next summer. Their 43-16 win against Georgia was one of the best Scottish performances since the 1990 Grand Slam and Stuart Hogg is plainly the new John Jeffrey. None of this means that they have much chance of beating England.

Which leaves Ireland, who are the only side in the northern hemisphere accelerating at the same speed as England. They showed class, mettle and bags of intelligence in two classic matches against the All Blacks — that win in Chicago and the bar-brawl loss in Dublin — and a 27-24 win against Australia.

Ireland do not have the same depth as England. Still, their Six Nations curtain-dropper against England in Dublin seems likely to be the championship decider.

The autumn isn’t over and already I’m looking forward to it.

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