England vs Wales: Stuart Lancaster prepares for judgment day by narrowing his sights

Ultimate test: Twickenham clash with the biggest of Lancaster's tenure
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Chris Jones25 September 2015

Stuart Lancaster goes into his biggest match as England head coach accepting the consequences of failure against Wales in tomorrow’s critical World Cup clash could shape his future in the job.

One match will not decide his fate, but defeat would put Lancaster under the most intense scrutiny before the small matter of Australia a week later.

“I understand the stakes and the consequences of this match,” he admitted. “It was always going to be the case that I am going to be judged on this one and next week. I haven’t been insulted by comments about our selection and people are entitled to their opinion. I appreciate there is going to be debate.”

In the face of this scrutiny, Lancaster has reined in his attacking philosophy and chosen a game plan that he believes is required to defeat Wales and pile the pressure onto his opposite number Warren Gatland.

By choosing a midfield of Owen Farrell, Sam Burgess and Brad Barritt, England are sending a clear message to the Welsh players — and it is one they will instinctively recognise because both teams are trying to deliver the same threat.

Wales base their attack around the ability of inside centre Jamie Roberts to break the gain line early. Quickly recycled ball gives them options left and right of the breakdown. From there, they have the chance to launch a multi-phase attack designed to turn it into a numbers game. By creating that overlap, crossing the tryline becomes a whole lot easier.

In this World Cup, England would like to attack with real width, but recognise that without the injured Jonathan Joseph their ambition must be tempered because the way Wales defend is designed to force mistakes as teams try to find the space out wide.

"A game against Wales is like no other and you can add another 100 per cent onto that as it is the World Cup."

&#13; <p>Stuart Lancaster</p>&#13;

If you attack on a much narrower front then you need the kind of physical battering ram that Roberts provides for Wales and that is where Burgess comes into the equation.

After Manu Tuilagi was banned from the squad until January following his conviction for assault, Lancaster decided Burgess would be the next best wrecking ball, despite having only played 20 games of union.

So, what does Lancaster want to achieve with this controversial selection? “We won against Wales [21-16] in February by dominating the gain line and putting the ball behind Wales,” he said.

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While that may not produce a try fest, it will be intensely emotional, physically demanding and aggressive fare for those rugby fans who like their meat rare. A Six Nations clash between the teams does not need any hype, so the introduction of potential World Cup glory or national disgrace by failing to get out of Pool A makes this a very special encounter.

“A game against Wales is like no other and you can add another 100 per cent onto that as it is the World Cup,” said Lancaster.

England have been waiting all week for the traditional verbal hand grenade from Gatland and, looking at his head to head since taking charge of Wales in 2007, he could not help mentioning it was “not bad to be 5-5 against the richest Union in the world.”

He could also have added against the Union with the most playing numbers to choose from — and that is a factor, with Wales losing Leigh Halfpenny and Rhys Webb for the tournament and prop Paul James for this match. They had already been robbed of Jonathan Davies and although Wales have strength in depth, any team would struggle to cover for those missing talents.

Wales have drafted in Wasps lock Bradley Davies to bolster their scrummaging and driving maul. Every country in this tournament have resorted to that form of attack and both teams intend to force the opposition to waste energy trying to halt it. At times, it’s going to get ugly.

The breakdown will be critical both in terms of England’s ability to generate quick ball and the referee’s interpretation of what both sides are trying to do. Farrell is a proven goal kicker, while Dan Biggar is highly regarded, although he would never claim to be as accurate as Halfpenny.

The stakes for both teams could not be higher and while Lancaster claimed ”this game isn’t the end of the World Cup”, it could push one of the teams closer to a disastrous exit.

I do not expect that team to be England.

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