Britain should target seven athletics medals at Tokyo 2020 Olympics - but don't take Doha golds for granted

Going for gold: Dina-Asher Smith will aim to turn her world success into Olympic glory
AFP via Getty Images

While no one is bashing the panic button just yet, there is tentative concern after Great Britain endured their worst World Athletics Championships since 2005 in terms of medal return.

Whether that metric is the right one to determine overall success is up for debate – the British team left Doha with two individual world champions in their ranks, one more than after London 2017 – as is whether the target of seven to nine medals was a little over ambitious, given this was the team’s first global championships without Mo Farah, the man who had won almost a third of Britain’s world medals since 2011, and exactly half of their golds, on his own.

But with an eye on the Olympic Games in Tokyo, where, given the inevitable debate around Team GB lottery funding, medals will be the ultimate currency and the consequences of failing to meet targets more severe, it is worth considering what may be a more realistic aim.

It is not enough to simply look at those who narrowly missed out this time and presume they will make the step up. Britain had five fourth-placed finishes at the last World Championships, and of them, only Dina Asher-Smith converted oh-so-near into precious metal, in the 200m.

In Pictures | World Athletics Championships Top 10 Medal Table 2019

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The performances of Laura Muir and, in particular, Callum Hawkins, still constituted strong progress, but Kyle Langford failed to qualify for the final of the men’s 800m, while Nethaneel Mitchell-Blake did not even earn selection for these championships as an individual.

Equally, the Olympics are now less than ten months away. There is talent in the British junior ranks – Amy Hunt broke the U18 200m world record earlier this year, Max Burgin took the British U20 800m record while still just 17 – but to expect anyone to step up to world class level within this short cycle is unreasonable.

The answers must lie within, but to find them we have to consider not only the potential of Britain’s athletes, but the state of the events in which they compete. Adam Gemili and Holly Bradshaw both walked away from Doha with agonising fourth-placed finishes, but both the men’s 200m and women’s pole vault looked sub-par this year in terms of global depth, and the standard may well improve by Tokyo.

There are others who could fulfil their potential and find it’s not enough. 22-year-old Morgan Lake, for example, is on podium funding and still full of promise as a high jumper, having only been focusing on the event full-time since last year, but Vashti Cunningham, Yuliya Levchenko and Yaroslava Mahuchikh are all younger and all more likely to challenge Mariya Lasitskene’s dominance. Laviai Nielsen has enjoyed a breakout year in the 400m, but with Shaunae Miller-Uibo and Salwa Eid Naser on another planet, the rest of the world is scrapping for one medal.

The likes of Andy Pozzi and Lynsey Sharp have gone into too many major championships as contenders and failed to deliver to be included in a realistic, rather than optimistic, medal projection.

Sharp was fancied to win a medal in Doha but crashed out in the first round Photo: Getty Images
Getty Images

So where should we be looking?

Miller-Uibo is hoping to double up in the 200m in Tokyo, which will dent Dina Asher-Smith’s chances of turning world into Olympic glory, but anything less than two individual medals would be a disappointment. Muir and Katarina Johnson-Thompson (below) will once again be the other big medal hopes, though the latter will surely face a Nafi Thiam resurgence as the Belgian defends her title.

Photo: AFP via Getty Images
AFP via Getty Images

Both sprint relays will medal if they get the stick round, while the women’s 4x400m team are likely to be on the cusp once more but the men’s quartet look miles short. So what about the 4x400m mixed relay? With an Olympic medal on the line, can Britain be as sensible/snobbish (delete as suits your view) as they were in Doha in allowing their best runners to focus on the individual campaigns?

The men’s marathon, where Great Britain will have gone 36 years without an Olympic medal by the time Tokyo comes round, may provide fertile ground, even with the greatest exponent of the event in history, Eliud Kipchoge, set to defend his title. Farah will don the British vest once more, and in Hawkins he now has a teammate capable of taking on the world’s best in a championship environment.

Given the inevitable randomness and brutal qualification involved in the men’s 800m - an event where Langford in particular will want to threaten the podium, but where 16 different men have contested the last two eight-runner global finals – the options in the longer middle-distance look more solid.

Jake Wightman is now in the top ten on the British all-time list, Josh Kerr reached his first world final by displaying terrific tactical aptitude, no doubt picked up on the US collegiate scene, and Charlie Da’Vall Grice, ranked number four in the world this year, did not even make the team.

Wightman and Kerr impressed in finishing fifth and sixth in the men's 1500m final in Doha Photo: PA
PA

And the outside bets? Britain’s last Olympic hammer medal came in 1924, but Nick Miller has shown that at his best, and with more favourable officiating, he may be a medal prospect, while if Lorraine Ugen can return to the form that saw her lead the world long jump rankings last year, the door to the podium may still be ajar in a fallow period in the event.

There is enough in the returns of Muir to fitness and Farah to the team to expect the lower end of another seven-to-nine ballpark target to be met. If the mixed relay is taken seriously and one of the possible, rather than probable, contenders can deliver, then we can cautiously hope for the upper one, too. But if the quota is filled with too much silver and bronze, and not enough gold, then will we look back at Doha as such a let-down after all?

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