Andy Murray’s magic but he won’t eclipse Rafael Nadal’s epic

Inspirational: Rafael Nadal’s win last year was beyond belief but he could struggle to retain his title
10 April 2012

By way of cleansing the palate for the banquet of good cheer ahead, let's begin with the bad news.

Nothing at Wimbledon will match last year's final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal an epic of such incomparable majesty that it should have ended with the ghost of Dan Maskell drifting down to that dusky Centre Court, like an absolute peach of a deus ex machina, to announce the abandonment of Wimbledon lest the memory be besmirched by future imitations.

Curiously, no such divine intervention took place. So here we are once again striving to contain the patriotic hope that has made the event such a perpetual torment since Tim Henman's emergence as a potential champion.

This year it is worse than ever, of course, because where Tim was never more than a live outsider, Andy Murray is a worthy second favourite to replicate Fred Perry in more than preferred style of pullover.

Four years ago, Murray announced himself here as a glittering prospect by taking a two-set lead over David Nalbandian before his legs, apparently on loan from a new-born calf, gave way.

Today, he is the finished article, the complete package, and any other admiring cliche you care to offer. Physically as resilient as anyone on the circuit, his mind is as strong as his body, as he proved by withstanding a fearsome Nadal rearguard to reach last year's US Open Final.

Admittedly, he then collapsed to Roger Federer but that was fatigue and first-night nerves. When he next reaches a major final, that won't happen.
There are a few doubts, however, and here they are, Eric Morley style, in reverse ascending order.

The slightest is whether he can bear the weight of media and public expectation. Of course he can. Such an endearingly cocky chap should draw energy from that.

Second, is his continued preference for luring opponents into mistakes rather than imposing his ground strokes on them a problem? Well, it can look negative and dull, but it works for him and should work on grass.

The primary concern is the second serve. Arguably the single most crucial shot on grass, Murray's has improved, but can still lack pace and length — a potentially lethal weakness against the only other two men with a genuine chance of the title.

How much Nadal's inflamed knee is troubling him won't be clear until he plays, assuming he turns up at all, while he may also be suffering an aftershock from that seismic defeat by Robin Soderling in Paris.

So ferocious is the Spaniard's will and drive that even playing in pain he can't be discounted. But he hasn't looked himself for months and is hard to fancy (for me at least; I am aware that the raging Mallorcan bull from time to time invades you ladies' erotic dreams).

As for the rightful favourite, there is no way of knowing how the French Open will affect Federer. Will the residual joy of finally completing his grand slam collection weaken his desire and concentration, or relieve the crushing self-imposed pressure and propel him into a glorious Indian summer? The odds are heavily on the latter, in my opinion.

And that, so far as the main contenders go, is that. Novak Djokovic, the last of the Big Four, who still hasn't recovered from winning the 2008 Australian Open, is a massive danger when on song but he has been off key for quite a while.

Juan Martin Del Potro, the 6ft 6in Argentine bulldozer, will shortly make it a Big Five, but at 20 doesn't look ready quite yet. There are several huge-serving dangers, such as Andy Roddick, Marian Cilic and Soderling, who might cause an upset, but cannot win it.

The 2009 champion will be one of the world's top three and probably either Federer or Murray. If and when they meet, the delicate balance between Federer's supreme winning record at Wimbledon and sublime grass-court game against Murray's fabulous winning record against Federer and superior mental strength would make it too close to call.

As usual these days, the women's event is far less predictable, purely because there is no dominant player. One or other Williams sister should win — in fact any one of 10 players could win — and nobody but only the decibel-fixated give much of a stuff which grunter will triumph.

Wimbledon is all about the boys. Be in no doubt that Murray is ready to breach the penultimate career barrier by winning his first slam.
Whether it happens is impossible to predict. What couldn't be easier to foretell, even for a useless a soothsayer as me, is that it will be ecstasy finding out.

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