Wimbledon 2014: Grigor Dimitrov can succeed where so many others have failed

 
On his way: Grigor Dimitrov

At Wimbledon this week, the 23-year-olds Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic have reached their first Grand Slam semi-finals, which, coupled with the early exits of Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal, has prompted suggestions that we are seeing a shift in power in men’s tennis.

Recent history suggests such thoughts may be premature – we have been here many times before.

The past nine years has seen an almost entirely uninterrupted period of dominance for tennis’s Big Four of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, but has been regularly punctuated by suggestions that the group’s dominance will soon be coming to an end.

To put the four’s success into context, since, and including the 2005 French Open (Nadal’s maiden slam), only two of the 37 Grand Slams played have been won by someone outside the Big Four - the 2009 US Open by Juan Martin Del Potro, and this year’s Australian Open by Stan Wawrinka.

By way of comparison, the previous 37 slams were won by 18 different players.

What is equally striking about the last nine years is how many different players have got to a Grand Slam semi-final but not been able to then win a major.

There have been 29 such players - many of whom were just as highly regarded as Dimitrov and Roanic are now. The likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet were all thought to be future Grand Slam champions, but have been unable to make the step up.

Other semi-finalists, like Robby Ginepri and Jurgen Melzer, quickly faded into relative obscurity, and never got close to winning a major.

Of course the Big Four cannot keep going indefinitely, and Wawrinka’s win in Australia suggests their grip on the majors may be loosening, but again we’ve been here before many times.

All four of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray have been written off at different points, and all have kept coming back.

As long ago as 2009, when Nadal’s battered knees saw him destroyed by Del Potro at the US Open and withdraw against Murray in Australia the following January, many experts said he would never win a slam again. He has since won eight more.

And yet, in spite of all that, Dimitrov somehow feels different, and it is almost impossible not to get a little carried away and feel he is on the verge of something special.

Firstly, there was his performance against Andy Murray on Wednesday, whom he did not just beat, but utterly annihilated – inflicting the Brit’s equal worst, in games won terms, defeat at SW19.

When players start to emerge, they often play a match that feels like their inauguration to the upper echelons of the sport – for Federer it was beating Sampras in five sets at Wimbledon in 2001, for Nadal it was beating the Swiss maestro at the 2005 French Open.

Wednesday’s quarter-final against Murray had that feeling to it, and perhaps as importantly it suggested a major technical improvement in Dimitrov’s game, with the Bulgarian dominating with the backhand - a shot which has let him down previously.

A big reason for that improvement is the work done by new coach Roger Rasheed, and the Australian is another big factor in why Dimitrov looks like a Grand Slam champion in waiting.

The notorious taskmaster of a coach did wonders for Lleyton Hewitt, Gael Monfils and Tsonga when working with them, and he looks to be doing the same for Dimitrov, particularly in the way he has got the World No13 to knuckle down and focus on his game.

Andrew Castle, who admittedly often has an uneasy relationship with making sense, seemed to have it right when he said that Dimitrov just gives off the aura of a soon-to-be slam champion.

The other first-time semi-finalist Milos Raonic feels a little further away from winning a slam, but his match with Roger Federer will give a good indication of his development.

Our favourite images from Wimbledon

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It is only right that two new talents coming through should feel exciting – after all the last time there were two new semi-finalists at a Grand Slam was the 2010 French Open. The pair on that occasion was Berdych and Melzer, whose subsequent careers illustrate that getting to a semi is far from a guarantee that a major is on the way.

Melzer was a relative veteran at 29, but Berdych was 24, just a year older than Dimitrov and Raonic are now, and he is no closer to winning a slam four years on.

If Dimitrov and Raonic are to prove that the Big Four really are on the wane this time, they must succeed where Berdych, Melzer, and so many others have failed.

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